THE STRATEGY CENTRAL WEEKLY
Summaries and Links to This Week’s Curated Articles
July 15 – 21, 2024
THE BIG PICTURE
In the USA, the focus is on the Biden administration's efforts to approve a $2 billion security aid package for Indo-Pacific nations, aimed at countering Chinese aggression. In Asia, Japan's and South Korea's growing involvement in European security matters was showcased at the recent NATO summit. Russia's strategies in Ukraine and its courtship of European leaders like Viktor Orban are an issue, emphasizing Moscow's attempts to exploit geopolitical divides. In the Middle East, Iran and the UAE are expanding influence in regions like the South Caucasus and the Horn of Africa, while in Europe, the EU's struggles with demographic decline are creating challenges, and the EU is recognizing the need for stronger engagement with Asian powers.
This week’s central theme is the interconnectedness of global security issues and the necessity for international cooperation and strategic adaptability. As rising powers like China and India set their sights on Europe, and as the USA shifts its focus towards the Indo-Pacific, traditional geopolitical alliances and strategies are being redefined, requiring nuanced and collaborative approaches to maintain stability and peace.
NATIONS MAKING HEADLINES
THE USA
"America’s Adversaries React to the Attempted Assassination of Donald Trump" by WOTR Staff, War on the Rocks, explores the varied responses from key global adversaries—China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadists—to the assassination attempt on Donald Trump. In Iran, reactions were mixed, with media closely associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps highlighting Trump’s past actions against Iran. Russian analysts predicted the incident would bolster Trump's electoral prospects, while official reactions were restrained. Chinese media emphasized U.S. political instability, with social media rife with conspiracy theories. North Korea and jihadist groups remained notably silent. The article comprehensively analyzes these geopolitical responses and their potential implications. [Read more] (https://warontherocks.com/2024/07/strategic-outposts-2024-summer-vacation-reading-list/)
"The Imperial Presidency Unleashed" by Sarah Binder, James Goldgeier, and Elizabeth N. Saunders, published by Foreign Affairs, examines the significant implications of the Supreme Court's ruling in Trump v. United States, which grants sweeping immunity to presidents from criminal prosecution after leaving office. The authors argue that this decision removes the last checks on executive power, potentially allowing presidents to act with impunity, even engaging in illegal activities without fear of accountability. This shift places the burden of oversight on Congress and the electorate, who have historically struggled to effectively check presidential power, especially in matters of foreign policy. The ruling, they contend, could have lasting effects on how other nations perceive U.S. leadership and accountability. [Read more](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/the-imperial-presidency-unleashed-donald-trump).
"Something Borrowed, Something Blue: Integrating Maritime Statecraft and Strategy" by BJ Armstrong, published by War on the Rocks, discusses the critical need for the United States to adopt a comprehensive maritime strategy that integrates economic, diplomatic, and military interests. Armstrong emphasizes the historical lessons from Alfred Thayer Mahan and suggests forming a committee of American maritime power to foster collaboration between the executive and legislative branches. This approach aims to address current maritime challenges and enhance U.S. strategic capabilities in the face of global maritime insecurity. [Read more](https://warontherocks.com/2024/07/something-borrowed-something-blue-integrating-maritime-statecraft-and-strategy/)
"Supply Chain Latest: Stiglitz on How to Boost Resilience" by Celine Imensek, Bloomberg, features Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz's insights on improving supply chain resilience. Stiglitz highlights the vulnerabilities exposed by recent crises, such as the pandemic and the 2008 financial meltdown, emphasizing the pitfalls of just-in-time production. He suggests that supply chains need backup capacities and longer-term investments should be incentivized to avoid short-term profit focus. Stiglitz also advocates for environmental taxes and strategic reserves to mitigate future risks. [Read more] (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-11/joe-stiglitz-on-why-supply-chains-are-always-too-fragile).
"USS Eisenhower Back in Norfolk Following Historic, Extended Deployment" by Diana Stancy, Navy Times, reports on the return of the aircraft carrier Dwight D. Eisenhower to Naval Station Norfolk after a nine-month deployment, most of which was spent in the Middle East. The carrier and its strike group were heavily engaged in operations, including shooting down Iran-backed Houthi drones and missiles. This deployment, described as the Navy's most kinetic conflict since World War II, saw the crew earn the Combat Action Ribbon. The Eisenhower's return marks the end of its participation in Operation Prosperity Guardian, aimed at protecting commercial vessels in the Red Sea. [Read more] (https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2024/07/15/uss-eisenhower-back-in-norfolk-following-historic-extended-deployment/)
"Trump Interview: His Plan for Taxes, Tariffs, Jerome Powell, More" by Nancy Cook, Joshua Green, and Mario Parker, Bloomberg, delves into Donald Trump's strategies for potentially returning to the presidency. During an exclusive interview at Mar-a-Lago, Trump outlined his economic plans, including lowering corporate taxes to 15%, maintaining Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair, and imposing extensive tariffs on China and the European Union. Trump also expressed skepticism about defending Taiwan and reiterated his hardline stance on immigration. His economic approach, dubbed 'Trumponomics,' aims to deregulate industries, increase domestic oil production, and support the cryptocurrency sector. [Read more](https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-trump-interview)
RUSSIA
"How Russia Bamboozled the West in Ukraine in 2014" by Julia Kazdobina, Jakob Hedenskog, and Andreas Umland, Foreign Policy, examines the West's failure to comprehend the true nature of Russia's actions during its initial invasion of Ukraine. The article highlights how Russia's use of hybrid warfare and disinformation led to the annexation of Crimea and destabilization of Eastern Ukraine while the West, misled by Russian narratives and a lack of expertise, responded with ineffective sanctions and diplomacy. This misunderstanding persisted until Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, underscoring the importance of recognizing and countering hybrid threats. [Read more] (https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/07/17/ukraine-russia-war-2014-donbas-crimea-west)
"Ukraine Goes All-In on Ground Robots" by Jack Detsch, Foreign Policy, discusses Ukraine's increasing investment in ground robots to enhance battlefield effectiveness and minimize human casualties. The article highlights the deployment of various robotic systems to support front-line troops, including logistics, reconnaissance, and direct combat roles. This technological shift aims to address manpower challenges and improve operational capabilities amidst the ongoing conflict with Russia. Ukraine's strategic adoption of ground robots represents a significant step toward modernizing its military and safeguarding its personnel. [Read more] (https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/07/17/ukraine-russia-war-ground-robots-combat)
EUROPE
"Europe’s New Strategic Leadership" by Foreign Policy staff highlights the evolving strategic dynamics within the European Union, particularly focusing on the roles of France, Germany, and Poland in addressing security concerns posed by Russia. The article underscores the importance of cohesive leadership and collaboration among EU member states to bolster the region's defense capabilities and political unity. It also explores the challenges and opportunities for the EU in navigating its relationship with Russia while maintaining internal stability and external influence. [Read more] (https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/07/19/europe-eu-strategy-leadership-france-germany-poland-security-russia/)
"UK's Lammy and Starmer on Israel, Gaza, and Middle East Policy" by Foreign Policy staff examines the positions of UK Labour Party leaders David Lammy and Keir Starmer on key Middle East issues, including the Israel-Gaza conflict and relations with the UAE. The article highlights their emphasis on balancing support for Israel's security with calls for humanitarian aid to Gaza, as well as promoting diplomatic engagement in the region. The piece underscores the potential shifts in UK foreign policy under their leadership. [Read more] (https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/07/16/uk-lammy-starmer-israel-gaza-uae-middle-east-policy/)
CHINA
"Xi Seeks to Cultivate Reformist Image at Plenum" by James Palmer, Foreign Policy, explores Chinese President Xi Jinping's efforts to align himself with the legacy of reformist leader Deng Xiaoping during the Third Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party. The event, delayed from 2023, has seen a significant propaganda push to present Xi as a champion of economic reforms, despite fears that his policies mark a return to pre-reform, top-down governance. The Plenum's focus on "new quality productive forces" and technology-driven growth highlights Xi's intent to secure China's geopolitical edge while addressing domestic economic challenges. [Read more](https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/07/16/xi-seeks-to-cultivate-reformist-image-at-plenum)
"Rising Asian Powers Set Their Strategic Sights on Europe" by C. Raja Mohan, Foreign Policy, discusses the shift in global power dynamics as Asian countries like China and India increasingly influence European geopolitics. The article highlights how Europe, traditionally dominant over Asia, is now becoming a focal point for Asian strategic ambitions. This includes military cooperation between China and Russia, and the involvement of Asian powers in European conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war. The growing presence of Asian powers in Europe signals a reversal of historical roles and underscores the need for Europe to adapt to these new geopolitical realities. [Read more] (https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/07/16/asia-europe-strategy-geopolitics-china-india-russia-ukraine-eu/)
"US Close to Sending $2 Billion in Security Aid Across the Indo-Pacific" by Noah Robertson, Defense News, reports on the Biden administration's imminent approval of nearly $2 billion in security aid to bolster Indo-Pacific countries against China's growing aggression. The package includes $1.2 billion for Taiwan, $500 million for the Philippines, and $300 million for other regional partners like Vietnam and South Asian island nations. This aid aims to enhance military capabilities and support defensive measures, such as Taiwan's "porcupine" strategy and the Philippines' efforts in the South China Sea. The urgency of this initiative reflects the escalating threats from China and the strategic importance of the region. [Read more](https://www.defensenews.com/2024/07/19/us-close-to-sending-2-billion-in-security-aid-across-the-indo-pacific)
ISRAEL & THE MIDDLE EAST
"The Palestinian Authority Is Collapsing" by Shira Efron and Michael J. Koplow, Foreign Affairs, examines the severe financial and political crisis facing the Palestinian Authority (PA), which threatens the viability of a two-state solution. The authors argue that symbolic international recognition of Palestine is insufficient without substantial support to rebuild the PA’s governance and financial stability. They advocate for targeted international assistance to strengthen the PA’s capacity, prevent further Israeli encroachments, and rebuild trust among Palestinians. Without this support, the collapse of the PA could lead to increased instability and violence in the region. [Read more] (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/palestinian-territories/palestinian-authority-collapsing)
"Israel Is Stuck in the Year 2000" by Steven A. Cook, Foreign Policy, examines Israel's outdated policy towards Lebanon, highlighting the ongoing security dilemmas that have persisted since its withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000. Cook argues that Israel's military strategies remain unchanged despite the evolving threats posed by Hezbollah, which has significantly improved its capabilities. The current Israeli government's approach to Lebanon reflects a reluctance to adapt to new geopolitical realities, potentially leading to further conflicts without offering long-term solutions. [Read more] (https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/07/19/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-gaza-palestine-policy-stuck)
"US-Built Gaza Aid Pier Will Be Dismantled After Troubled Mission" by Lolita C. Baldor and Tara Copp, Military Times, details the decision to dismantle a U.S. military-built pier designed to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza. The mission faced numerous challenges, including severe weather, security issues, and logistical hurdles that prevented the effective delivery of aid. Despite Vice Adm. Brad Cooper's assertion that the pier achieved its intended purpose, critics labeled the $230 million project a failure. As the U.S. steps away, concerns linger over Israel's plan to use the Ashdod port for future aid delivery. [Read more](https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2024/07/17/us-built-gaza-aid-pier-will-be-dismantled-after-troubled-mission/)
"The Red Sea Crisis Goes Beyond the Houthis" by Ambassador Johnnie Carson, Alex Rondos, Susan Stigant, and Michael Woldemariam, United States Institute of Peace, examines the complex crisis in the Red Sea region, emphasizing that the instability extends beyond the Houthi attacks on maritime traffic. The authors argue that addressing the crisis requires a broad international diplomatic effort, particularly from the United States, to de-escalate conflicts in the Horn of Africa and prevent the worsening of humanitarian conditions in countries like Sudan and Ethiopia. [Read more] (https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/07/red-sea-crisis-goes-beyond-houthis)
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