THE STRATEGY WEEKLY – SPECIAL EDITION
Summaries and Links to This Week’s Curated Articles
July 8 – 15, 2024
The 2024 NATO Summit
At the 2024 NATO Summit in Washington, D.C., discussions centered on the strategic implications of Russian and Chinese military exercises in Belarus and their broader impact on European security. The summit's agenda emphasized the need for robust defense strategies to counter these growing threats. NATO officials highlighted the increased coordination between Russia and China, which has raised significant concerns within the alliance. The Chinese military exercises in Belarus are perceived as a challenge to NATO's eastern flank, prompting calls for enhanced military readiness and cooperation among member states.
NATO leaders underscored the importance of integrating military and civilian defense plans to prepare for potential Russian aggression. This included long-range missile strikes, disinformation campaigns, and assaults on critical infrastructure. The alliance emphasized that each member country must develop comprehensive civil defense plans to ensure resilience in the face of an attack. This would bridge the period before NATO's political leaders could invoke Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which mandates collective defense.
The summit's results were significant. NATO welcomed Sweden as its newest member, further strengthening the alliance's defense capabilities by including Finland and Sweden. The alliance also announced substantial support for Ukraine, including military, political, and financial assistance, and steps to bring Ukraine closer to NATO membership. Additionally, there was a notable increase in defense spending commitments, with 23 members now meeting the 2% GDP target, reflecting a heightened readiness to counter threats.
Moreover, NATO leaders agreed to enhance the defense industrial base to ensure sustainable production of critical munitions and equipment. They also advanced NATO's modernized command structure and comprehensive defense plans spanning air, land, sea, cyber, and space domains. The summit marked a significant step towards bolstering NATO's deterrence and defense capabilities, preparing the alliance to address both current and future threats posed by Russia and China.
The emphasis on strengthening global partnerships, particularly with Indo-Pacific partners like Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea, highlighted NATO's recognition of the interconnected nature of global security. These partnerships aim to address shared security challenges, including cyber defense, disinformation, and the growing military and economic ties between Russia, China, and North Korea.
The allies have stated that Ukraine is on an "irreversible path" to NATO membership. They pledged to continue providing Ukraine with approximately $43 billion in annual support to help defend itself from Russia's invasion and deter future aggression. Additionally, they have promised air defense support, including Patriot missile systems and F-16 fighter jets, and individual security deals with NATO members, seen as a step towards NATO membership for Ukraine.
In a recent NATO meeting, the allies agreed to launch a new program to offer military aid and training to Ukraine and expressed support for Ukraine's future membership in NATO. President Zelenskyy welcomed the increased military aid and the potential to join NATO but urged for faster delivery of aid and the removal of restrictions on the use of U.S. weapons to target military sites in Russia.
NATO emphasized on Wednesday that it "does not seek confrontation, and poses no threat to Russia," while expressing a readiness to "maintain channels of communication with Moscow to mitigate risk and prevent escalation." However, NATO's concerns this week were not limited to Russia alone.
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol highlighted on Thursday the significance of the Kremlin's close ties with North Korea, stating it serves as a “stark reminder of the fact that European security and Indo-Pacific security are indivisible.” Additionally, NATO criticized China on Wednesday for being a “decisive enabler” of Moscow’s war efforts. The alliance urged Beijing to halt all shipments of weapons components and technological parts crucial for Russia's military rebuilding.
NATO's official summit communique warned that China “cannot enable the largest war in Europe in recent history without this negatively impacting its interests and reputation.” However, it did not outline specific repercussions. In alignment with NATO's stance, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan announced that the United States would persist in imposing sanctions on Chinese entities supporting Russia's war effort.
Overall, the 2024 NATO Summit demonstrated the alliance's commitment to adapting and reinforcing its defense strategies in response to evolving geopolitical threats, ensuring a united and prepared front against any potential aggression.
Summary of Events
Here is a summary of the key events and decisions from the NATO Summit held in Washington, D.C., from July 9-11, 2024:
1. Welcoming New Members: For the first time, NATO leaders met as a group of 32, welcoming Sweden into the Alliance. Finland and Sweden's integration into NATO's command structures was a focal point, reinforcing their defense capabilities and shared democratic values.
2. Support for Ukraine: The summit emphasized strengthening NATO's relationship with Ukraine. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy participated in discussions on further support against Russian aggression. Significant measures were announced to bolster Ukraine’s defense and move it closer to NATO membership, including establishing the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU) and appointing a senior NATO representative in Kyiv.
3. Defense Spending: The summit highlighted a significant increase in defense spending among NATO members. Twenty-three Allies now meet the defense investment commitment of spending at least 2% of their GDP on defense, a substantial rise from only three in 2014.
4. Defense Industrial Base: There were commitments to enhance the transatlantic defense industrial base, ensuring the production and sustainability of necessary munitions. NATO agreed on contracts worth $10 billion for arms and ammunition production to strengthen defense industrial production and coordination.
5. Modernized Deterrence and Defense: Leaders advanced NATO’s modernized command structure and new generation defense plans, covering air, land, sea, cyber, and space domains. These comprehensive plans are the first since the Cold War and aim to enhance the Alliance's readiness and response capabilities.
6. Strengthening Global Partnerships: NATO continued to deepen its relationships with Indo-Pacific partners, including Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and the Republic of Korea. Discussions included the military and economic relationship between Russia and North Korea, and China's support for Russia. Four new Flagship Projects focused on support for Ukraine, cyber defense cooperation, disinformation challenges, and artificial intelligence.
These events collectively aimed to reinforce NATO's defense capabilities, support Ukraine, and expand partnerships to address global security challenges.
Alexandra Sharp, "NATO Summit Results," Foreign Policy, July 11, 2024.
Jack Detsch, "NATO Sets New Benchmarks for Deterring Russia's Next Attack on Europe," Foreign Policy, July 9, 2024, 6:00 AM.
M. E. Sarotte, "A Better Path for Ukraine and NATO," Foreign Affairs, July 8, 2024.
Putin clearly told the leaders of the European Union and NATO that offeriing NATO membership to Ukraine would result in conflict. Knowing one of the stipulations to NATO entry is that the candidate nation can't be in an armed conflict while applying for membership.