Clausewitz’s Trinity Applied to the U.S.
STRATEGY CENTRAL
For And By Practitioners
By Monte Erfourth – January 18, 2025
Introduction
The "people" in Clausewitz's trinity represent war's emotional and social foundation, embodying the collective passions, cultural values, and public opinion that drive and sustain a nation's involvement in conflict. This element emphasizes that war is not solely a matter of military strategy or political calculation but also deeply rooted in the population's will and sentiment. The people provide the moral and material support necessary for waging war, influencing recruitment, resource allocation, and overall national resolve. When the population is united in purpose and motivation, they can bolster a state's ability to endure prolonged struggles and support policies that align with their values and interests.
However, the role of the people also introduces volatility and unpredictability. Public opinion can shift rapidly due to battlefield successes or failures, casualties, economic hardships, or propaganda. If popular support wanes, it can undermine the state's political leadership and the military's effectiveness, potentially forcing premature negotiations or withdrawal. Clausewitz highlights the necessity of maintaining alignment between the people's passions and the political and military components of the trinity, as their disunity can destabilize the overall war effort. In the current American application, the scenario is not war; rather, great power competition that parallels war. This underscores the complex interplay between the populace's emotional energy and the state's and military leadership's more calculated actions.
The volatility and unpredictability of the American people, coupled with widespread distrust of government, may seem like a liability for national stability and global influence. Public skepticism, deep political polarization, and shifting priorities complicate governance and policy execution. Yet, paradoxically, these traits are also hallmarks of a dynamic, resilient society. The American system thrives on decentralized power, public debate, and a vigorous private sector, all more often than not transforming discord into innovation and adaptability. While instability at home can create challenges, the system’s flexibility enables the United States to weather crises, course-correct, and emerge stronger—an advantage many rigid or authoritarian competitors lack.
Despite its internal discord, America remains far ahead of its global competitors across critical measures of power and influence. The U.S. economy accounts for 26% of global GDP, making it larger than the combined economies of the global South. Its per capita wealth surpasses every other major nation, with middle-class households ranking among the wealthiest 1-2% globally. In technology, the United States generates over 50% of high-tech profits worldwide, and its energy revolution has turned it into the top producer of oil and natural gas. These achievements, combined with the dollar's dominant role in global finance and a network of military alliances spanning the globe, secure its unrivaled influence on the international stage.
From military alliances like NATO and AUKUS to its growing demographic strength fueled by immigration, the United States operates on a foundation unmatched by other nations. Even as China faces demographic decline and economic stagnation, and Europe wrestles with sluggish growth and aging populations, the United States uniquely combines scale, innovation, and strategic alliances. These facts underscore that, despite its internal challenges, America’s structural advantages ensure its continued leadership in shaping the global order.
The State of The State: A Powerful Mess
By all appearances, the United States is grappling with profound internal dysfunction. Public trust in government has plummeted to record lows, patriotism is declining sharply, and political polarization has peaked since Reconstruction. Amidst economic challenges, social divisions, and rising threats of violence against politicians, some scholars liken the U.S. to a failing state, with comparisons to Weimar Germany or the late Soviet Union. Yet, despite this domestic turmoil, the United States remains extraordinarily resilient as a global superpower. It commands 26% of the world’s GDP, matches its economic dominance of the 1990s, and has solidified its control over global arteries like energy, finance, and technology.
The paradox of American power lies in its enduring strengths. Its vast geographic expanse, resource wealth, and oceanic borders not only insulate it from external threats but also connect it to global trade. Unlike its rivals, the U.S. benefits from dynamic demographics, with a growing workforce driven by high immigration and birthrates. Its decentralized political system fosters innovation and adaptability, enabling a robust private sector to outpace global competitors in technology and productivity. While China, Europe, and Russia struggle with economic stagnation, demographic decline, and internal challenges, the U.S. leads in innovation, energy production, and alliance-building, bolstering its position as the world’s dominant power.
However, this dominance coexists with vulnerabilities. Economic disparities between thriving urban hubs and struggling rural areas fuel political polarization, while geographic security and wealth often foster disengagement from global challenges. These contradictions result in what some term “hollow internationalism,” as the U.S. simultaneously asserts global leadership while underfunding diplomatic and military capabilities. Despite these challenges, America’s unparalleled combination of scale, innovation, and strategic alliances ensures that it remains far ahead of both its rivals and allies, making it a unique power capable of shaping the global order even amid internal strife.
There is a significant civil and institutional crisis at home, marked by widespread public dissatisfaction and eroding trust in governmental institutions. No other statistic describes the problem more clearly than the fact that 47% of the nation believes the United States is nearing a civil war. A historical low of Americans, 44%, have confidence in the Supreme Court, 48% of respondents said they had confidence that the presidency is working, and 39% said the Congressional institution is working. A survey by The Hill on January 14, 2025, indicates that 59.9% of respondents feel the country is headed in the wrong direction. This sentiment transcends political affiliations, with significant portions of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents expressing pessimism about the nation's trajectory.
Compounding this discontent with government institutions, there is a growing perception of economic inequality. A 2024 survey highlighted that 69% of Americans believe that the political and economic elite do not care about hard-working people, reflecting a deep-seated skepticism towards those in power. Additionally, only 27% of Americans aged 18-25 "agree strongly" that democracy is the best system of government, compared with 48% for all ages, indicating a troubling decline in confidence among younger citizens. These statistics underscore a profound crisis of confidence in the nation's direction, economic equality, and its foundational institutions. Taken as a whole, these trends pose significant challenges to the cohesion and functionality of American society.
These contrasting conditions of significant power and civil discord should not be viewed rationally as correlated. What, then, is occurring? Let’s examine the numbers more closely.
The United States Power By The Numbers
Economic Resilience and Growth
Share of Global Wealth: The U.S. accounts for 26% of global GDP, maintaining its dominance since the early 1990s, and its economy is now twice the size of the eurozone.
Per Capita Wealth Growth: U.S. per capita wealth has surged past global competitors, with median household incomes rising 55% since 1990, even as wages in other major economies have stagnated.
Innovation Leadership: U.S. firms generate over 50% of global high-tech profits, with a robust venture capital ecosystem that represents about half the global total.
Energy Independence and Power
Energy Leadership: Transitioning from the world’s largest importer to the top oil and natural gas producer, the U.S. has insulated itself and its allies from foreign energy coercion.
Efficiency and Sustainability: Per capita carbon emissions have fallen to levels last seen in the 1910s, demonstrating a successful pivot toward renewable energy and energy efficiency.
Strategic Dominance
Military Alliances: Expanded alliances like NATO (including Finland and Sweden) and new initiatives such as AUKUS bolster U.S. influence across Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific.
Dollar Dominance: The U.S. dollar remains the backbone of global finance, representing 60% of global central bank reserves and nearly 90% of foreign exchange transactions.
Demographic Advantage
Workforce Growth: While competitors face shrinking populations, U.S. prime working-age populations are growing, bolstered by high immigration rates and birthrates.
Talent Magnet: The U.S. consistently attracts global talent, and its world-class universities and innovation hubs foster a dynamic and productive workforce.
The numbers tell the story of resilient structural systems that endure despite political and cultural dysfunction. These systems may continue functioning for a while, but significant damage could ensue if disagreements lead to bad choices. It is even possible that these advantages will disappear altogether. Government intervention in what sustains these advantages risks undermining what makes America more effective than other nations. Additionally, if the American people fall behind in skills, motivation, and belief in the American way, they could jeopardize what makes America successful. The American government and the people should not undermine five specific areas of strength to maintain our benefits as the most powerful nation on Earth.
Why America Outpaces Rivals and Allies
The U.S. enjoys unique structural advantages that put it ahead of global rivals like China and allies in Europe:
Scale and Efficiency: Unlike populous but less efficient nations like China and India, or wealthy but smaller nations like Japan and Germany, the U.S. combines size with productivity, ensuring unmatched material power.
Geographic Insulation and Accessibility: Surrounded by oceans, the U.S. is both shielded from external threats and connected to global trade routes, creating a secure and prosperous environment for economic growth.
Innovation Diffusion: The decentralized nature of the U.S. political and economic systems allows for rapid adoption and scaling of new technologies, a critical advantage over centrally planned economies like China.
Resilience Through Crisis: Historical patterns show that the U.S. emerges stronger after crises, whether during the Civil War, the Great Depression, or the Cold War, reinforcing its global primacy.
Global Integration: While rivals like China focus on subsidy-heavy models, the U.S. leverages open trade, foreign investment, and strategic alliances to enhance its global standing and influence.
The American Trinity
Clausewitz’s trinity describes war as the product of three interconnected forces: the army, the people, and the government. Each represents a critical aspect of a nation’s ability to engage in conflict or maintain cohesion in competition. The army symbolizes the calculated application of military power and professional expertise. The people reflect the emotional and social foundation, providing moral and material support. The government embodies rational decision-making, strategy, and policy leadership. In theory, aligning these elements ensures a nation’s success in war (and competition) and other existential challenges. However, in modern America, cracks in this alignment expose significant vulnerabilities.
The people, traditionally the emotional backbone of Clausewitz’s trinity, appear increasingly disconnected from their government and, by extension, the army. Public opinion, shaped by economic insecurity, political polarization, and distrust in institutions, has become volatile and fragmented. The forces driving this dissatisfaction are likely tied to the unseen or underexamined roles of political and economic power structures. These forces, operating through lobbying, campaign financing, and media manipulation, create a perception that the government serves elite interests rather than the public good. This misalignment erodes trust and undermines the collective will essential for national resilience.
Similarly, as the rational actor in Clausewitz’s trinity, the government faces challenges in maintaining legitimacy and coherence. Political gridlock, opaque decision-making, and a lack of accountability give the impression that leadership is unresponsive to the needs of the people. Meanwhile, economic powerhouses wield disproportionate influence, shaping policy to benefit narrow interests while neglecting broader societal needs. This dynamic distorts the intended function of government within the trinity, leaving it vulnerable to criticism and incapable of galvanizing public support for critical initiatives. Without a government that is both effective and trusted, the cohesion of the trinity weakens further.
Though often viewed as the most stable component, the army is not immune to these pressures. Its professional ethos and operational capacity depend on people's support and government guidance. When public trust in institutions falters, and government policies lack clarity, the army’s ability to function effectively is compromised. Moreover, the economic and political forces that shape military priorities may not align with national security interests, creating inefficiencies and further alienating the public. When examined through this lens, Clausewitz's trinity suggests that the dissatisfaction among Americans stems from visible dysfunction and deeper, systemic misalignments driven by unchecked political and economic power. Addressing these forces is essential to restoring trust and reestablishing balance.
America Is Better With a Sunny Disposition Than As The Cult of Doom
American democracy stands at a crossroads, burdened by political discord and eroding trust in its foundational institutions. Yet, history reminds us that the nation thrives on its ability to confront challenges with resilience and innovation. To preserve its global leadership and strengthen its domestic cohesion, the United States must rekindle the shared belief in democracy and capitalism as a unifying principle. This begins by confronting systemic flaws and the “cult of doom” that exacerbate division and undermine public trust.
Politically, urgent reforms are essential. By ending gerrymandering, introducing ranked-choice voting, eliminating primaries, and shortening the presidential campaign season, the United States can reduce polarization and elevate the quality of political discourse. Reshaping the internet and social media to combat the spread of falsehoods and disinformation would further enhance the quality of civic engagement, ensuring that technology serves the people rather than divides them. This is possible. Just because one form of predatory algorithm dominates does not mean it cannot be changed. We made it, we can change it. Additionally, improving government transparency and updating tax codes to address economic disparities would signal a renewed commitment to fairness and accountability.
Economic reforms are equally critical to bridging divides and fostering unity. Expanding education, training, housing, and healthcare access would provide a tangible foundation for shared prosperity. Strengthening economic mobility through targeted investments in underrepresented communities while simultaneously investing in our best and brightest can rebuild faith in the American Dream. These measures would address immediate inequalities and fortify the population’s belief in the system’s ability to deliver opportunities for all.
Finally, reviving the civic spirit requires comprehensive civics education and a renewed emphasis on citizen participation. Americans must be encouraged to engage with their government at all levels and see democracy not as a static achievement but as an ongoing commitment. The challenges are formidable, but they are not insurmountable. By recommitting to unity, reform, and opportunity, America can reaffirm its democratic ideals and continue to serve as a beacon of hope and strength in an increasingly uncertain world.
We all know the need for party power lurks behind any of these initiatives. The current political powers that be thrive off your rage. Deny the political parties’ rage and demand optimism. There is legitimate, solid proof that America is far better than most Americans realize. Suppose we sustain and expand our national power while we work to repair our disastrous civil strife. It would take believing in institutions that still generate a global power. It requires dropping rage long enough to see facts and truth, but we can do it. In that case, we can become a nation that deserves the blessings and advantages our power accords. If we fail to do this, our children will likely have to learn Chinese to get ahead in life.
Conclusion
The paradox of America’s global dominance lies in its extraordinary power juxtaposed with a population that largely disbelieves in the systems underpinning its success. Economically, militarily, and technologically, the United States remains unparalleled, yet its citizens' collective skepticism toward institutions, governance, and even democracy casts a long shadow over its achievements. This disconnect is ironic and alarming: America commands the heights of global influence while grappling with internal doubts about its trajectory and values.
At the heart of this irony is a profound misunderstanding or underappreciation of what makes the United States exceptional. Its decentralized political system, entrepreneurial spirit, and capacity for resilience have driven innovation, prosperity, and strategic dominance. Yet, many Americans see only dysfunction, missing the enduring strengths that continue to position their nation as the world’s leader. This perception gap undermines the collective will needed to address pressing challenges, from political polarization to economic inequality.
The United States must confront the cultural and informational forces eroding trust and unity to bridge this divide. Social media algorithms that amplify division, a broken political system that rewards extremism, and growing economic disparities all fuel this crisis of confidence. Reforms in governance, technology, and economic policy are critical to reversing these trends and rekindling a sense of shared purpose. Americans must be reminded that their nation’s global position is not guaranteed—it is the result of systems, values, and hard-won achievements that require constant care and renewal.
Ultimately, the irony of American power should serve as a call to action. Suppose the United States can harness its global strength to rebuild domestic trust and unity. In that case, it will sustain its leadership and transform it into something worthy of enduring pride. Only by addressing this paradox head-on can Americans ensure their nation’s remarkable story continues—one where its people not only live in the world’s most powerful country but also believe in the principles that make it so.
Bibliography
Michael Beckley. “The Strange Triumph of a Broken America: Why Power Abroad Comes With Dysfunction at Home.” Foreign Affairs, January/February 2025.
George Washington Polling. https://gwtoday.gwu.edu/poll-shows-americans-trust-government-holds-steady-amid-turmoil
Gallup Research Poll. https://news.gallup.com/poll/4732/supreme-court.aspx
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