War Comes Home To Russia
By Monte Erfourth - August 17, 2024
Introduction
The strategic landscape of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has dramatically shifted with Ukraine's unexpected invasion of Russia's Kursk region. This operation marks a significant turning point in the war regarding military gains and the broader strategic implications for both nations and the international community.
The Objective: A Gamble for Leverage
Ukrainian Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi announced Monday that Kyiv controls 1,000 square kilometers (386 square miles) of Russian territory, far exceeding Russian estimates. Russian officials claim Ukrainian forces have advanced 12 kilometers (7.5 miles) into the Kursk region along a 40-kilometer (25-mile) front, capturing 28 settlements. Despite this, Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhiy Tykhyi stated that Kyiv has no interest in "taking over" the region. Ukraine has since expanded its control of the region.
Ukraine's invasion of the Russian Kursk region represents a bold and calculated gamble. The incursion of Ukrainian forces into Russia’s Kursk region has become the greatest territorial gain by either side since the successful Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson in the fall of 2022. It remains unclear whether the dwindling and poorly prepared Russian forces have been able to halt the Ukrainian advance or whether the Ukrainians decided on an operational pause by Tuesday. What is clear is that the operation demonstrates Ukraine’s ability to achieve surprise and exploit sudden breakthroughs, something at which Russia has consistently failed since the start of its own invasion.
Due to concerns about triggering an uncontrolled escalation, the Biden administration and some allies have restricted the types and range of weapons sent to Ukraine. For example, Ukraine has not been permitted to use Western missiles to strike Russian military installations, contending that Putin would launch a nuclear attack if Russian soil became a Ukrainian target. The recent Kursk operation may expose the fallacy of the red-line argument. Time will tell.
The primary objective behind this operation is not exactly clear yet. However, Ukraine's primary aim is likely to relieve military pressure in the south and east of Ukraine, where Russia has been steadily advancing. Ukrainian commanders hope to force the Kremlin to pull troops from Ukraine's front lines to defend Russia itself. On Thursday, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said on Telegram. “The creation of a buffer zone in the Kursk region is a step to protect our border communities from daily enemy attacks.”
The offensive also allows Ukraine’s military to regain the initiative after a year of costly defensive operations. Realizing that it cannot win a war of attrition against the larger and wealthier Russia, Kyiv is shifting to a strategy of mobility and maneuver. This approach exploits Ukraine's agility and the Russian army's plodding nature. The invasion of Kursk Oblast has achieved this, striking a blow to Russian morale and spreading panic while also boosting the spirits of a war-weary Ukrainian society.
Lastly, it appears the Kurk invasion could be an attempt to gain leverage in potential future negotiations. Ukrainian forces have managed to capture and hold significant territory, which, if maintained, could be used as a bargaining chip in peace talks. This move directly challenges the narrative that Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, has the upper hand and will dictate the terms of any ceasefire or peace agreement.
According to Andreas Umland, an analyst at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk could bring a quicker end to the war by demonstrating Ukraine's ability to inflict substantial pain on Russia. This could compel Moscow to reconsider its position and open the door for negotiations that might have previously seemed out of reach.
The Impact on the War
The Kursk Offensive had immediate impacts on the front lines of the war. Ukraine has shattered the perception of invulnerability that Russia has tried to maintain. For the first time since World War II, foreign troops have invaded Russian soil, sending shockwaves through the Kremlin and Russian society. This invasion has exposed significant weaknesses in Russia's border defenses and has caused confusion and disarray within Moscow's military command. How had Russian intelligence failed to expose this gathering threat? This failure is almost as spectacular as the success of operational secrecy that Ukraine demonstrated.
As expected, the operation has revitalized Ukrainian morale and shifted the momentum back in Kyiv's favor. The capture of approximately 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory, along with the evacuation of over 200,000 Russian citizens from the area, represents a symbolic and strategic victory for Ukraine. This success contrasts sharply with the stalled Russian offensives in other parts of Ukraine, where Moscow has struggled to make meaningful gains despite heavy losses.
Tactically, it will force Russia to divert troops and resources from other critical fronts, potentially relieving pressure on Ukrainian forces in the south and east. This shift could allow Ukraine to regain momentum, disrupt Russian operations, and strain Russian logistics, leading to delays in resupply and weakening Russian advances across multiple fronts.
Strategically, the invasion will have profound psychological and geopolitical effects. Holding Russian territory could boost Ukrainian morale, undermine Russian confidence, and provide Ukraine with leverage in future negotiations. The invasion may also lead to increased Western support for Ukraine while escalating the conflict and potentially drawing in greater international involvement. Additionally, the breach of Russian territory could destabilize Russia domestically, leading to internal dissent and challenges to the government’s leadership.
Russia's Response
Russia's response to the Kursk offensive has been marked by shock and Putin’s flip dismissal as a stunt to gain negotiating leverage. Vladimir Putin, who has long portrayed the war as a slow but inevitable Russian victory, now faces the daunting task of regaining lost territory on Russian soil. The Kremlin has downplayed the significance of Ukraine's gains, labeling them mere provocations, but the reality on the ground tells a different story.
In response to Ukraine's invasion of its Kursk region, Russia is likely to take several strategic actions to counter the threat. Moscow may strengthen its defensive positions along the border, redeploying troops and fortifying key areas to prevent further Ukrainian advances. Mobilizing additional reserves and resources, including personnel and equipment, will likely be a priority, allowing Russia to bolster its regional military capabilities.
A counteroffensive operation involving coordinated ground, air, and artillery strikes could be launched to regain lost territory and disrupt Ukrainian momentum. On the diplomatic front, Russia is expected to intensify efforts to isolate Ukraine internationally, leveraging its influence in global forums such as the United Nations to frame the invasion as a destabilizing act of aggression. Additionally, Moscow could escalate its cyber and information warfare campaigns, aiming to undermine Ukrainian morale and disrupt military communications.
Simultaneously, Russia might seek to open diplomatic channels for negotiation, hoping to de-escalate the conflict on favorable terms while maintaining the strongest possible military position. Economic and energy influence may also be wielded, particularly over European nations, to pressure Ukraine and its allies. This could include restricting energy supplies or imposing sanctions to weaken Ukraine’s resolve and strain its Western relationships. In a bid to counter NATO’s influence, Russia could strengthen military alliances with countries opposing Western policies, engaging in joint exercises and strategic partnerships.
In preparing for a prolonged conflict, Russia would ensure sustainable supply lines, rotating forces to avoid fatigue, and planning for various escalation scenarios. Domestically, the Kremlin may intensify its messaging to galvanize national unity, portraying the invasion as a defense of Russian sovereignty and rallying public support for the military effort. These combined actions could help Russia mitigate the impact of the Ukrainian invasion and reestablish control over the contested region while pursuing its broader strategic objectives.
Putin's options for retaliation are modest and some carry risk. The use of nuclear weapons on Russian territory is unthinkable. While missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities may escalate, they are unlikely to reverse the tide of the war. The Russian military, already stretched thin, may struggle to mount an effective counteroffensive in Kursk while also maintaining pressure on other fronts.
Broader Strategic Implications
The Kursk Offensive is more than just a military operation; it is a strategic maneuver that could redefine the trajectory of the war. By capturing and holding significant territory, Ukraine has seized the initiative and shown the world how vulnerable Russia is to attack. It also sends a clear message to Ukraine's Western allies that Kyiv can defend itself and take the fight to the enemy.
For Russia, the invasion is a severe blow to its prestige and a stark reminder of the limits of its military power. The operation has exposed Russia's defenses’ fragility and created a new sense of urgency in Moscow to secure its borders. This could lead to further escalation, as Putin may feel compelled to take drastic measures to restore his image and control over the war's narrative.
Strategically, the invasion has broader geopolitical repercussions. It demonstrates Ukraine's resilience and capability, which could increase support from Western allies, leading to enhanced military and economic aid that further strengthens Ukraine's position. The operation also highlights the interconnectedness of global conflicts, particularly as Russia's invasion of Ukraine has influenced European and U.S. policies toward China and shaped how China views an invasion of Taiwan.
The invasion of the Kursk Region will likely complicate the dynamics between China, Russia, NATO, and the United States, potentially affecting global alliances and strategic priorities. Additionally, the invasion highlights vulnerabilities in European security and economic dependencies. Both China and Russia have aggressively pursued trade agreements that could give them undue leverage over EU nations. This could prompt the EU and its member states to accelerate efforts to strengthen economic resilience and reduce reliance on adversarial powers.
The Changing Dynamics of the Conflict
Ukraine's strategy to invade Russia's Kursk region is multifaceted and, although as of yet unstated, likely aims to achieve several strategic objectives. The incursion relieves military pressure on Ukraine's southern and eastern fronts, where Russian forces are advancing. Ukraine seeks to disrupt current and future Russian operations and regain the initiative by forcing Russia to divert troops to defend its territory.
The invasion also demonstrates Ukraine's ability to conduct offensive operations, thereby boosting Ukrainian morale and undermining Russian confidence. This psychological impact is significant, as it challenges the perception of Russian invulnerability and exposes weaknesses in Russia's border defenses. It will also lift the morale of the war-wary Ukrainian public, so vital to continuing the fight for the nation’s future.
By inflicting pain on Russia, Ukraine has created unprecedented leverage for future negotiations. Capturing and holding significant territory may force Putin to the negotiating table, which both sides have repeatedly rejected. For the first time, Ukraine positions itself to negotiate from a position of strength, potentially using the captured land as a bargaining chip in peace talks.
The invasion sends a clear message to Ukraine's Western allies, particularly the United States and European Union, showcasing Ukraine's capability to defend itself and take the fight to the enemy. This could increase support and resources from these allies, further strengthening Ukraine's position. The successful incursion into Russia is a powerful counter-narrative to the idea that the war is a protracted stalemate with no end.
Ukraine's strategy of invading Russia's Kursk region is designed to disrupt Russian military operations, boost Ukrainian morale, create leverage for negotiations, and demonstrate Ukraine's resilience and capability to its Western allies. To force a change in the war, President Zelensky would likely have to push for an offensive against the well-dug-in Russian forces in Ukraine next year. This multifaceted approach aims to shift the conflict's momentum in Ukraine's favor. More importantly, it paves the way for a more favorable strategic outcome without having to smash its forces on Russia’s strongest point.
Conclusion
Ukraine's invasion of Russia's Kursk region has achieved several critical objectives: disrupting Russian military operations, capturing and holding significant territory, and boosting Ukrainian morale. This bold move has shifted the momentum of the conflict, forcing Russia into a reactive position and challenging its perceived invulnerability. Ukraine's success in Kursk has created leverage for future negotiations and sent a strong message to Western allies, potentially increasing military and economic support from NATO and the United States. This operation has demonstrated Ukraine's resilience and capability, positioning it strategically to influence the war's outcome in its favor.
In response, Russia must strengthen its defensive positions, mobilize additional resources, and consider launching a counteroffensive to regain lost territory. Simultaneously, Moscow should intensify diplomatic efforts to isolate Ukraine internationally while exploring negotiation avenues to de-escalate the conflict. For NATO and the United States, the Kursk invasion underscores the need to continue and possibly expand support for Ukraine, ensuring it can maintain its strategic advantage. The long-term impact of this invasion could significantly alter the trajectory of the war, potentially leading to a faster resolution or, conversely, escalating the conflict further if Russia opts for more aggressive retaliation.
The Ukrainian invasion of Russia's Kursk region is a bold and potentially game-changing move in the ongoing conflict. It has exposed vulnerabilities in Russia's defenses, shifted the momentum back to Ukraine, and created new negotiation opportunities. While the ultimate outcome remains uncertain, the operation has already profoundly impacted the war, both on the battlefield and in the broader strategic landscape. As the situation unfolds, the world will watch closely to see how this new conflict phase shapes the future of Ukraine, Russia, and the international order.
President Zelensky cannot afford to let the status quo continue. The United States may prefer things as they are, but Ukraine cannot afford it. Gamble with an attack or bleed to death—those are the options the Ukrainian leader is facing.
The last paragraph says it all.
“President Zelensky cannot afford to let the status quo continue. The United States may prefer things as they are, but Ukraine cannot afford it. Gamble with an attack or bleed to death—those are the options the Ukrainian leader is facing.”.
Excellent paper.