Strategic and Operational Considerations for Military Action Against Mexican Drug Cartels

By Jeremiah Monk

"The drug cartels are waging war on America—and it's now time for America to wage war on the cartels," Trump said in a statement in 2023. "The drug cartels and their allies in the Biden administration have the blood of countless millions on their hands. Millions and millions of families and people are being destroyed. When I am back in the White House, the drug kingpins and vicious traffickers will never sleep soundly again."

- President-Elect Donald Trump, December 22, 2023.

INTRODUCTION

 The idea of deploying the U.S. military to combat Mexican drug cartels has surfaced prominently in recent years, driven by the desire to curb the flow of drugs and human trafficking into the United States. While such an approach raises significant strategic and operational challenges, the potential use of military force against cartels remains a topic of intense debate, blending national security issues, international diplomacy, and operational feasibility.

 President-elect Trump has stated his intent to attack the cartels. In anticipation of such an order, Strategy Central ran a mission analysis of a hypothetical order to the U.S military to degrade and dismantle the capabilities of Mexican drug cartels. The objectives would include neutralizing cartel leadership, disrupting supply chains, and undermining the cartels’ capacity to traffic drugs and humans. At the same time, these operations would aim to safeguard American lives, enhance border security, and limit the likelihood of cartel retaliation. However, to achieve these outcomes effectively, planners would need to consider a range of diplomatic, legal, and operational factors.

STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS

Mission Purpose and End State: The overarching purpose of such a mission would be to weaken the operational effectiveness of Mexican drug cartels and reduce the flow of illegal drugs and human trafficking into the U.S. This would also address a critical national security issue, given the devastating impact of fentanyl and other illicit substances on American communities. The desired end state would see the cartels’ operational networks significantly disrupted, U.S. borders more secure, and an enduring cooperative framework established with regional allies to prevent the resurgence of trafficking networks.

Diplomatic Challenges and Requirements: A military operation in Mexico would require robust diplomatic engagement. Mexico’s government is likely to perceive unilateral military actions as a breach of sovereignty, triggering widespread political backlash. Coordinating with the Mexican military and law enforcement agencies would enhance legitimacy, but it might require substantial negotiations to ensure mutual objectives and operational alignment. Framing the mission as a counter-terrorism and anti-trafficking initiative could help garner international support while addressing domestic and foreign criticisms.

Risks of Retaliation: One of the most significant risks is cartel retaliation. Cartels could target U.S. interests through asymmetric warfare, including violent attacks on border cities, kidnappings of American citizens, and strikes on symbolic or high-value targets within the U.S. Internationally, cartels may exploit their transnational networks to attack U.S. assets or personnel abroad. These risks underscore the need for comprehensive contingency planning and enhanced intelligence gathering to anticipate and mitigate potential threats.

OPERATIONAL OPTIONS

To accomplish the mission, three primary operational approaches emerge, each with distinct advantages, challenges, and implications:

Option 1: Unilateral Direct Action

The U.S. military could conduct unilateral operations targeting cartel leadership, infrastructure, and supply networks without involving the Mexican government. Precision strikes and special operations could focus on high-value targets, including drug production facilities, warehouses, and financial centers.

Advantages:

• Full operational control enables rapid decision-making and execution.

• Removes the need for prolonged diplomatic negotiations.

Challenges:

• Likely to provoke a severe diplomatic crisis with Mexico, potentially alienating an important trade and security partner.

• Limited access to local intelligence, reducing operational effectiveness.

Option 2: Joint Operations with the Mexican Military

A collaborative approach would involve the U.S. military working alongside the Mexican military and law enforcement agencies. This strategy would leverage local intelligence, align objectives, and ensure operations remain within the framework of international law.

Advantages:

• Enhanced legitimacy through cooperation with Mexico’s government.

• Access to local intelligence networks improves target identification and operational success.

Challenges:

• Political and logistical constraints in Mexico could hinder the speed and scope of operations.

• Risk of corruption or infiltration of Mexican forces by cartels.

Option 3: Border-Focused Campaign

This approach emphasizes bolstering border security and conducting limited cross-border strikes targeting cartel logistics near the U.S.-Mexico border. It would focus on preventing trafficking operations from entering the U.S. rather than targeting cartels at their core.

Advantages:

•  Minimal diplomatic fallout, as operations remain largely within U.S. territory or immediate border regions.

• Focuses on enhancing U.S. security infrastructure.

Challenges:

• Limited impact on the cartels’ broader networks and production capabilities.

• Potential for prolonged conflict at the border with no resolution to root causes.

STRATEGIC RISKS AND MITIGATION

Cartel Adaptation and Resilience: Mexican drug cartels are highly adaptable and resilient, with decentralized structures that allow them to recover quickly from disruptions. Military planners must anticipate the need for sustained pressure to prevent cartels from reorganizing and regaining strength. Regular assessments and adaptive operational strategies will be essential.

Collateral Damage and Humanitarian Concerns: Operations in populated areas risk collateral damage and civilian casualties, which could erode public support and fuel anti-American sentiment in Mexico. Precision targeting, strict rules of engagement, and coordination with humanitarian organizations would be necessary to minimize these risks.

Escalation into Broader Conflict: Unilateral military actions could escalate into broader conflict if Mexican government forces oppose U.S. operations or if cartels seek to exploit nationalist sentiments to rally support against perceived foreign aggression. Clear communication channels and contingency planning for de-escalation would be critical.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Among the three operational options, joint operations with the Mexican military offer the most balanced approach. By partnering with Mexico, the U.S. can enhance legitimacy, leverage local intelligence, and mitigate diplomatic fallout. This strategy would require significant preparatory work, including joint training, the establishment of a shared command structure, and diplomatic agreements to align objectives and operational priorities.

Risk mitigation measures must accompany this approach. Bolstering domestic intelligence capabilities will help preempt cartel retaliatory actions, while public messaging campaigns can counter cartel propaganda. Additionally, strengthening partnerships with other regional allies can help contain the cartels’ transnational influence and ensure a coordinated response to spillover effects.

CONCLUSION

The prospect of deploying the U.S. military against Mexican drug cartels presents a complex interplay of strategic, operational, and diplomatic challenges. While the risks are substantial, including potential retaliation and strained U.S.-Mexico relations, the stakes are equally high, as the cartels’ activities continue to claim countless lives and threaten national security. A carefully planned, well-coordinated campaign, rooted in international partnerships and supported by robust risk mitigation strategies, could significantly disrupt cartel operations and advance U.S. security objectives.

Former President Trump’s call to “take matters into our own hands” underscores the urgency of addressing the cartel crisis. However, any military action must be guided by strategic clarity, adherence to international law, and an unwavering commitment to protecting civilian lives. The U.S. can effectively combat this transnational threat by leveraging a combined approach that integrates joint operations with unilateral precision actions while upholding its principles and alliances.