A Small Shift in the Deployment Cycle Could Reap Huge Rewards
Strategy Central
For And By Practitioners
By Monte Erfourth, January 24, 2025
Introduction
Great power competition aims to advance and protect national interests while avoiding costly wars. Unlike traditional warfare, competition does not focus solely on defined victories or end states. Instead, it emphasizes continuous, national-level campaigns designed to secure a lasting peace that ensures the U.S. economic, societal, and military advantage. This steady-state competition involves strategic maneuvering to advance national interests at the lowest cost possible, reflecting the move-and-counter-move dynamics of international relations.
Competitive campaigning emerged from the 2022 National Defense Strategy as a central framework for orchestrating and synchronizing simultaneous operations to achieve national objectives across the competition continuum. This article explores the principles, strategies, and challenges of competitive campaigning, emphasizing its role in maintaining global security and advancing U.S. interests and explaining the role that Special Operations Forces (SOF) can play in a successful campaign.
A SOF Competition Campaign Imagined
Imagine, if you will, special operations forces (SOF) conducting a globally coordinated irregular warfare campaign in the gray zone to deter, degrade, deny, and defeat threats posed by China, Russia, or Iran to United States national security interests. This campaign would not be conducted in the conventional battle spaces of war but within the subtle and ambiguous realm of the gray zone, foreign internal defense, influence, cyber operations, proxy conflicts, and covert actions. Such efforts would mirror current operations, leveraging SOF's unique capabilities to adapt and operate in austere and politically sensitive environments. Yet, as great power competition evolves, the question arises: how can SOCOM and the SOF enterprise adapt their training, education, and operational paradigms to confront these increasingly complex and multifaceted challenges?
To secure an edge over these rivals, SOF must first achieve a deeper understanding of its adversaries. This involves rigorous study of their strategic cultures, decision-making processes, and methods of exerting influence in the gray zone. Enhanced intelligence integration, cultural competence, and constant wargaming with cutting-edge technology would prepare SOF for an evolving battlefield. Additionally, deployment preparation must become more precise, focusing on tailored solutions for each operational theater. SOF must innovate by incorporating advanced predictive models and simulations to anticipate better rival actions and their potential impact on U.S. interests. This level of preparation ensures that SOF remains agile and capable of executing the full spectrum of gray zone operations.
Finally, the conduct of these operations must be designed to advance U.S. national interests and withstand external scrutiny. Even within the secrecy of SOF missions, operational transparency is critical to ensuring accountability and effectiveness. This involves embedding robust assessment and evaluation frameworks into every mission, ensuring that actions align with strategic objectives while avoiding mission creep, unintended consequences, and capturing the operation's effectiveness. A revised approach to training, deploying, and evaluating operations would position the SOF enterprise as a more adaptive and potent force capable of deterring and defeating threats in the gray zone while maintaining its strategic relevance in an era of great power competition.
The Framework of Competitive Campaigning
At its core, competitive campaigning integrates means and ways to accomplish policy aims, functioning as a strategic construct to align military actions with national security interests. It operates on the premise of simultaneous activities across competition, crisis, and conflict, requiring an understanding of the competition continuum—where states interact to gain influence, leverage, and advantage.
The Joint Force is structured as a unified and interdependent entity that executes Joint Integrated Campaigning (JIC). The Joint Force (means) synchronizes diverse military capabilities (ways) to achieve national policy objectives (ends) to address complex global challenges. JIC emphasizes the seamless integration of all military branches, interagency partners, and allied forces, ensuring a cohesive approach to conflict and competition. By combining capabilities across land, air, sea, space, and cyber domains, the Joint Force can comprehensively advance interests and respond to threats through multi-domain operations. This approach relies on coordination, advanced planning, and shared situational awareness to maximize synergy and efficiency, enabling adaptability in rapidly changing environments and ensuring dominance across the conflict spectrum, from conventional warfare to gray zone operations.
A central concept of JIC is "campaigning forward," which prioritizes shaping the security environment before crises arise. This proactive approach involves consistent engagement with partners and allies to build trust, enhance interoperability, and deter adversaries through a visible and credible presence. It demands a nuanced understanding of threats and the strategic use of power to gain advantage.
In addition to shaping the environment, competitive campaigning involves influencing perceptions and actions through asymmetric means, such as deception, coercion, confusion, or punishment of rivals. Integrating non-military tools—diplomatic, economic, and informational—expands the focus beyond battlefield success, addressing opposition and root causes of instability while fostering long-term resilience.
This holistic approach ensures the United States maintains a competitive edge in an era of great power competition, where threats often blur the lines between peace and conflict. Joint Integrated Campaigning establishes a unified, adaptive framework that supports national objectives and safeguards global stability.
Campaigning Challenges
One of the principal challenges in competitive campaigning is the complexity of the strategic environment. Adversaries frequently operate below the threshold of armed conflict, employing transregional and multi-domain tactics to exploit vulnerabilities. Addressing these challenges requires thoroughly understanding the operational environment and adversary strategies, tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs). The J2 (intel shop) often cannot provide the level of detail necessary for strategic understanding or operational realities. AI is the best bet to alleviate this problem. A clear picture can be achieved by scraping the internet for unclassified information and combining it with classified intelligence. It will require pushing the bureaucratic system to gain permissions and build the infrastructure necessary. You are behind if you are not pushing your command to do this!
Another critical challenge is integrating military activities with interagency and inter-organizational partners. Globally integrated operations demand effective coordination and a shared understanding of risks and objectives. Campaign planning must emphasize risk assessment, including political, mission, and force-related risks. The Weinberger-Powell Doctrine offers a historical framework to evaluate the justification and feasibility of military actions, ensuring campaigns are deliberate and strategically sound. There is no global and comprehensive common operating picture (COP) to go from, so developing coordinated efforts will take some effort. The place to start is in your command. Once a COP is achieved in your “house,” then you can work with adjacent units and commands/inter-agency.
Authorities and permissions are a perennial hindrance to campaigning. Know what the law allows, funds, and says. More often than not, a CONOP will be submitted with the particular NDAA section explaining what authority pertains to a request to conduct an operation. That habit must persist, but it should be accompanied by an explanation of risk and its mitigation. Include the risk of inaction without being melodramatic. The truly bold will also have a way to measure the outcome of both action and inaction and provide an after-action report with verifiable results or track what happens because your unit was not allowed to act.
Lastly, a campaign implies conducting coordinated action across time and space to achieve an effect. Assessment and analysis are critical to demonstrate your impact and record results over time. If all your unit can ever do is report what it did but not the result, expect your ability to gain permission to act in the future and funding requests to dry up. SOCOM got used to having money thrown at it regardless of the results during GWOT. Those days are over. Provide results or perish. That is the new paradigm.
How To Campaign In Great Power Competition
The campaign process involves a systematic and strategic approach to align national security interests with operational objectives, ensuring a cohesive and effective implementation. This process generally follows current military planning processes and deployment cycles.
It starts with identifying interests and objectives. Here is a detailed explanation:
1) Analyze National Security Interests
The process begins with analyzing national security interests by consulting existing documents such as National Security Strategies, Defense policies, and Combatant Command (COCOM) directives. This step identifies key priorities and areas requiring military or strategic focus, ensuring operations align with broader national objectives.
2) Align Campaign Objectives with Theater Military Objectives
Next, the campaign design connects SOF capabilities to specific theater military objectives. These objectives aim to protect or advance identified national security interests. This alignment ensures that SOF operations contribute directly to achieving overarching strategic goals within the capabilities and deployment timelines available. If protecting interests, develop a deep understanding of what threatens them and how (study enemy).
3) Apply NSW Activities to Military Objectives
The process integrates SOF-relevant activities into the military objectives for each theater. This involves tailoring operations and resources to meet specific regional challenges and opportunities, ensuring that SOF efforts complement broader campaigns.
4) Compare Campaign Objectives Across Theaters
A comparative analysis is conducted to identify areas of mutual support across theaters. This step enhances efficiency by leveraging shared objectives and resources, minimizing redundancy, and promoting coordination between various operational theaters.
5) Develop SOF Ways and Means to Achieve Objectives
This phase focuses on defining the methods and resources (ways and means) required for SOF to achieve its objectives. Planning is essential to ensure that the SOF are prepared, adequately equipped, and capable of executing the designed strategy.
6) Train for the Campaign
Training is tailored to the campaign's specific requirements to ensure operational readiness. This includes scenario-based exercises and rehearsals to prepare forces for potential challenges and contingencies during deployment.
7) Campaign Execution in Time and Space
Campaigning involves carefully orchestrating operations in time and geographic space. Deployment schedules and resource allocations are planned to maintain continuity and effectiveness throughout the campaign. Continuous evaluation and adaptation ensure that the campaign remains responsive to evolving circumstances. Intra- and inter-theater coordination should be well established to coordinate effects and maximize their impact.
Through this structured process, the campaign ensures alignment with national priorities, efficient resource use, and the capability to adapt to dynamic operational environments, ultimately enhancing mission success and strategic impact.
The Campaign Cycle
The continuous and iterative campaign cycle ensures operational readiness, strategic alignment, and effective mission execution. It integrates deployment phases, training, and pre-deployment preparations, creating a seamless flow of operations and learning. By systematically capturing insights from each phase, the cycle enables SOF units to refine their strategies and tactics, enhancing their adaptability to evolving threats and challenges. This structured approach ensures that lessons learned translate into actionable improvements, maintaining operational superiority and alignment with national objectives.
A detailed explanation of the cycle and its steps:
Post-Deployment Phase
This phase involves reflecting on the most recent deployment to capture valuable insights and prepare for future operations.
1) Relief in Place (RIP)
The outgoing team conducts a handover with the incoming unit, ensuring continuity in operations and minimizing disruption.
2) Debriefing and Lessons Learned
Post-deployment, the unit conducts a detailed debrief to identify successes, challenges, and areas for improvement. Advanced tools like AI synthesize reports and data to create comprehensive insights for the next deployment cycle.
3) Adaptation of Training
Based on the lessons learned, the unit adjusts its technical and tactical training to address identified gaps and improve overall effectiveness.
4) Mission, Enemy, and Area Analysis
This step focuses on studying enemy tactics and strategies, analyzing regional dynamics, and reviewing current global campaigns. These insights inform future planning and operations.
Work-Up for Deployment
This stage bridges the gap between post-deployment analysis and operational readiness.
1) Capture Mission Summary and Intelligence
The returning team shares its mission summary and lessons learned with the preparing unit. This includes identifying intelligence gaps and updating requirements for the upcoming mission. Study rival strategies, TTPs, and activities relevant to your area of operation and beyond.
2) Campaign Development and Wargaming
The work-up phase involves crafting and refining the campaign plan. Teams engage in wargaming exercises to simulate potential scenarios, improving readiness for specific missions. Maximize the use of AI and war game hundreds of times.
3) Mission-Specific Training
Tailored training focuses on the unique requirements of the mission, ensuring personnel are equipped with the skills and knowledge needed for success.
4) Deployment Preparation
Final preparations include equipment checks, administrative tasks, and movement coordination. The unit also completes the relief-in-place process to ensure a smooth transition into the next phase.
Deployment and Campaign Execution
During deployment, teams execute the campaign plan while maintaining flexibility to adapt to dynamic conditions.
1) Relief in Place (RIP)
The incoming team receives a comprehensive briefing and shadows the outgoing team to understand the current operational environment and priorities.
2) Situational Analysis
Teams review theater objectives with operational planners (J3/J5) and integrate intelligence updates to refine their understanding of the mission landscape.
3) Integration with TSOC/COCOM
The deployed unit aligns its objectives with Theater Special Operations Command (TSOC) and Combatant Command (COCOM) strategies to maintain coherence with broader campaigns.
4) Execution and Adaptation
The team actively executes the campaign plan, creating strategic effects that advance or defend U.S. interests. Emerging threats or opportunities may require adjustments to the original plan, including submitting new Concepts of Operations (CONOPS).
5) Coordinated Effects
Achieving meaningful effects on nation-states requires a deeper understanding of both supportive parallel initiatives and adversaries' actions and motivations. The impact of Special Operations Forces (SOF) actions and activities is maximized when they are executed in a strategic sequence or at a specific time and location that amplifies their overall effect or impression.
This campaign cycle represents a disciplined and iterative approach to operational readiness, emphasizing the seamless integration of learning, planning, and execution. It ensures that each phase, from post-deployment analysis to active campaigning, is interconnected and contributes to the overarching goal of achieving national objectives. By focusing on capturing lessons learned, refining strategies, and adapting training to real-world challenges, the cycle prepares units to operate effectively in dynamic environments. The careful study of mission objectives, enemy strategies, and regional dynamics equips teams with a comprehensive understanding of their operational landscape, enabling them to make informed decisions and execute precise actions. The continuous refinement through wargaming and mission-specific training ensures that units remain adaptable and capable of addressing evolving threats.
This framework may appear similar to current deployment cycles but introduces critical enhancements that distinguish it. Key features include a strong emphasis on understanding objectives, thorough analysis of adversaries, and careful mission planning, which form the foundation of this cycle. The integration of wargaming, enhanced by artificial intelligence, adds predictive capabilities and scenario analysis that significantly improve operational preparation. Furthermore, the focus on coordinating efforts across different theaters ensures that all actions contribute to a cohesive strategic impact. These elements streamline operations and ensure that each phase of the cycle maximizes its potential to advance or protect U.S. interests, making this approach a modernized and highly effective iteration of existing deployment practices.
Conclusion
The framework of competitive campaigning reflects a holistic and dynamic approach to addressing the challenges of great power competition. Rooted in aligning military objectives with national security priorities, it emphasizes a proactive stance in shaping the global environment and deterring adversaries. Through the integration of irregular warfare, advanced technology like AI, and the strategic application of resources across domains, competitive campaigning equips forces with the tools to navigate the complexities of modern conflict.
A defining characteristic of this approach is its iterative nature, which spans pre-deployment preparation, deployment operations, and post-deployment analysis. This cycle ensures continuous learning, adaptability, and the ability to respond effectively to emerging threats and opportunities. The principles of capturing lessons learned, rigorous mission planning, wargaming, and coordinating actions across theaters underscore its focus on achieving sustainable outcomes in a volatile global landscape.
While this model introduces incremental changes to traditional deployment cycles, its emphasis on understanding objectives, studying the adversary, leveraging technology, and coordinating effects across domains highlights its transformative potential. By integrating these elements, competitive campaigning offers a means to secure strategic advantages while mitigating risks, ensuring the Joint Force and SOF remain agile and prepared for the demands of great power competition.
Ultimately, competitive campaigning reaffirms the need for innovation, collaboration, and strategic foresight to protect U.S. interests and maintain global security. As the Joint Force adapts to an environment defined by competition and complexity, this framework provides a roadmap for aligning capabilities and achieving long-term strategic objectives. SOF can lead the way by campaigning in the gray zone to out-compete and out-hustle our competitors.
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