By Jeremiah Monk
In further exploration of the role of AI in military wargaming, this article follows “An Evolution of Military Wargaming: Beyond Linear, Tactical Scenarios,” published 7 October 2024 on Strategy Central.
Introduction
As the nature of warfare continues to evolve, military strategists are increasingly turning to artificial intelligence (AI) to transform how defense organizations plan and execute military operations. AI-driven military wargaming is poised to revolutionize strategic decision-making by addressing the growing complexities of modern warfare, including multi-domain operations (MDO) and rapidly advancing technologies like cyber warfare and autonomous systems. By enhancing the adaptability, speed, and scope of military simulations, AI is reshaping how defense organizations prepare for future conflicts.
The Limitations of Traditional Military Wargaming
For decades, military wargaming has relied on linear, pre-scripted models driven by human expertise. These conventional wargames, influenced by the Jominian school of thought, are structured around predefined scenarios with a limited set of actions and outcomes. Antoine-Henri Jomini's military theories emphasized geometric precision and decisive points, but this linear approach often overlooks the unpredictability of modern warfare.
In contrast, Carl von Clausewitz, the famed Prussian military theorist, highlighted the chaotic nature of war, introducing the concept of "friction"—the unexpected events that disrupt even the best-laid plans. Traditional wargames struggle to account for this chaos and are limited in their ability to simulate real-world conditions where factors like cyberattacks, misinformation, and geopolitical tensions play critical roles. AI seeks to address these limitations by providing a more dynamic, data-driven approach to wargaming.
How AI can Transform Wargaming
AI’s integration into military wargaming offers several key advantages over traditional methods. Unlike conventional wargames, which are often limited to simulating land, air, or sea operations in isolation, AI-driven simulations can process vast amounts of data and model complex interactions across multiple domains—cyberspace, land, sea, air, and space. This enables military planners to better understand the cascading effects of actions taken in one domain on others, providing a more holistic view of modern conflicts.
AI also enhances wargaming by introducing non-linear, adaptive scenarios that evolve based on real-time changes. Machine learning algorithms allow AI to analyze historical data and predict adversary behavior, offering military planners new insights beyond conventional military doctrine. These simulations enable military teams to explore unconventional strategies, test creative responses, and make rapid adjustments to their plans—something that traditional, linear wargames cannot accommodate.
One of the key benefits of AI-driven wargames is their speed. While traditional wargames require extensive manual preparation and scripting, AI can generate multiple scenarios quickly, allowing military planners to test a broader range of strategies in a shorter time. This speed also allows planners to explore “what if” scenarios, including worst-case outcomes, helping identify vulnerabilities that traditional methods might overlook.
AI Enhances Learning from Failure
A significant innovation AI brings to military wargaming is the ability to systematically explore failure. Traditional wargames often focus on achieving optimal outcomes, but AI simulations can model scenarios where things go wrong—such as communication breakdowns, unanticipated enemy tactics, or operational failures. By studying these failure points, military strategists can develop more resilient and adaptable plans.
The assertion that “no plan survives first contact with the enemy” is particularly relevant here. AI-enhanced simulations allow military planners to confront the unexpected, helping them prepare for scenarios that fall outside the scope of typical wargames. Sun Tzu’s principles of exploiting enemy weaknesses also align with AI’s capabilities, as AI can reveal vulnerabilities in both friendly and adversary strategies, enabling strategists to turn setbacks into strategic advantages.
AI and Multi-Domain Operations
Modern warfare increasingly involves multi-domain operations, where actions in one area—such as a cyberattack—can significantly affect operations in another, like air or land warfare. AI-enhanced wargaming allows military planners to model these complex, interconnected domains, providing a more accurate picture of how today’s wars are fought.
AI’s ability to simulate operations across multiple domains reflects Clausewitz’s understanding that war is shaped by numerous factors—political, social, economic, and psychological. By processing large volumes of data and simulating interactions across these dimensions, AI helps military planners gain a deeper understanding of how various factors influence the outcome of a conflict.
Moreover, AI’s adaptability allows it to introduce unexpected variables into wargames, forcing participants to adjust their strategies in real time. For instance, AI can simulate an adversary using unconventional tactics, requiring military planners to think creatively and depart from standard procedures. This level of adaptability mirrors Sun Tzu’s advice to exploit chaos and turn it into an opportunity.
Ethical and Operational Challenges
While AI brings significant advantages to military wargaming, it also introduces ethical concerns. One key challenge is the risk of over-reliance on AI in decision-making processes. Clausewitz emphasized the importance of human judgment, arguing that no amount of data or technology can replace the intellectual and moral qualities required of military leaders. AI should, therefore, be viewed as a decision-support tool rather than a replacement for human expertise.
Another ethical consideration is transparency. Many AI systems, particularly those based on deep learning, operate as “black boxes,” meaning their decision-making processes are difficult for humans to interpret. This lack of transparency raises concerns in military contexts, where understanding the rationale behind a decision is critical for evaluating its ethical and strategic implications.
AI systems are also vulnerable to manipulation by adversaries. If an enemy can corrupt the data fed into AI systems, it could lead to flawed outputs, jeopardizing the integrity of military decisions. Clausewitz’s concept of “friction” applies here, as AI systems introduce new forms of unpredictability into military operations. Ensuring the robustness and security of AI systems is crucial to preventing adversarial manipulation.
Finally, there is the balance between AI-driven efficiency and human creativity. While AI excels at analyzing data and modeling complex interactions, it lacks the intuitive, creative capacities that human commanders bring to the battlefield. Military leaders must ensure that AI enhances, rather than stifles, human ingenuity—a concept that aligns with Clausewitz’s notion of the "genius of war."
Conclusion: The Future of AI in Military Wargaming
AI is set to revolutionize military wargaming, providing defense organizations with the tools they need to navigate the complexities of modern warfare. By enabling the simulation of multi-domain operations, enhancing decision-making speed, and offering a more dynamic, adaptive approach to strategy, AI allows military planners to better prepare for the uncertainties of future conflicts.
However, the integration of AI into military strategy must be approached with caution. Ethical considerations, including the preservation of human judgment, transparency, and security, must remain at the forefront of AI’s development in wargaming. AI should be used as a decision-support tool that complements human creativity and strategic thinking, not as a substitute for it.
As warfare continues to evolve, AI will undoubtedly play an increasingly important role in shaping military strategy. The future of AI in military wargaming will depend on how well defense organizations can strike the right balance between human expertise and technological capabilities. With AI’s potential to enhance adaptability, decision-making, and strategic depth, the partnership between human and machine will be key to success in the modern battlefield.
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