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Know Your Enemy: Essential Reading for Special Operations Professionals on the US-PRC Strategic Competition

12 minutes ago11 min read

STRATEGY CENTRAL

For and By Practitioners

By Maurice "Duc" Duclos - March 13, 2025



“Know yourself and know your enemy, and in a hundred battles, you will never be in peril,”

-- Sun Tzu in The Art of War.


Introduction

In today's complex geopolitical landscape, Special Operations Forces (SOF) professionals face unprecedented challenges in navigating the strategic competition between the United States and the People's Republic of China (PRC). This competition extends far beyond conventional military domains into economic, technological, informational, and diplomatic spheres—precisely the arenas where SOF expertise in asymmetric approaches provides critical advantages.

However, understanding the PRC requires more than surface-level knowledge of its economic rise or military expansion. It demands a comprehensive grasp of China's historical context, strategic culture, governance philosophy, technological ambitions, and societal vulnerabilities. For SOF professionals operating in the gray zone between peace and war, this knowledge isn't academic—it's operational necessity.

Why is China a critical subject for SOF study? Three primary reasons:

  1. Comprehensive Challenge: Unlike past competitors, China poses multi-domain challenges across military, economic, technological, and informational fronts simultaneously and at a level that can genuinely threaten America’s regional and global dominance.

  2. Asymmetric Focus: PRC strategy emphasizes asymmetric advantages to offset conventional superiority—mirroring SOF's own operational philosophy.

  3. Global Competition Space: The competition extends across every continent and domain, creating both friction points and opportunities for SOF engagement.

This reading list prioritizes operational relevance over academic comprehensiveness. The selections provide insight into China's long-term strategies, military development, influence operations, and technological advancements—particularly in artificial intelligence (AI) and cyber warfare. Each resource has been evaluated for its direct applicability to SOF operations, strategic planning, and critical thinking about future competition scenarios.

When multiple books cover similar topics, selections were made based on clarity, depth, and operational utility. While Destined for War introduces the idea of Thucydides' Trap, The Hundred-Year Marathon provides a more actionable analysis of China's patient strategy. Similarly, The Coming Collapse of China raises valid concerns about PRC economic fragility, but The End of the World Is Just the Beginning presents a more comprehensive assessment of demographic and supply chain vulnerabilities.

These books and articles serve as an intellectual toolkit, offering operators the knowledge necessary to recognize PRC strengths and weaknesses and apply pressure where it matters most—transforming abstract knowledge into operational advantage.

 

Essential Reading: A Curated Selection

Historical and Strategic Foundations

The Art of War, Sun Tzu (Translated by Samuel B. Griffith)

Publication Date: Original ~500 BCE, Griffith translation 1963

Executive Summary: Foundational text on warfare emphasizing deception, intelligence, and achieving victory without fighting; provides critical insight into PRC military thought patterns and strategic preferences.

Sun Tzu's treatise remains foundational to PRC military doctrine. Emphasizing deception, adaptability, and asymmetric strategies, its principles appear in modern Chinese warfare, from gray-zone operations to cyber tactics. Understanding these tenets provides SOF professionals with insight into PRC decision-making.Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Art-War-Sun-Tzu/dp/0195014766Free Version: https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/132

Discussion Questions:

·       How do Sun Tzu's principles manifest in modern PRC gray zone operations?

·       Which concepts from the text are most relevant to SOF operations in the Indo-Pacific?

On Guerrilla Warfare, Mao ZedongPublication Date: 1937 (various translations)

Executive Summary: Mao's revolutionary blueprint combining military and political strategy; essential for understanding PRC views on asymmetric conflict, popular mobilization, and the relationship between military operations and political objectives.

This seminal work outlines Mao's revolutionary warfare strategy, emphasizing mobility, deception, and political warfare. While often studied for counterinsurgency, SOF professionals should recognize these principles in contemporary PRC operations. The text reveals how China views protracted conflict, population-centric operations, and the strategic conversion of weakness into strength—concepts with direct applications to modern competition below the threshold of armed conflict.

Discussion Questions:

  • How might PRC forces apply Maoist principles in contemporary gray zone operations?

  • What parallels exist between Mao's concepts of protracted conflict and current PRC strategy?


The Governance of China, Xi Jinping

Publication Date: Volume I (2014), Volume II (2017), Volume III (2020)

Executive Summary: Direct insight into Xi's ideological framework and strategic priorities; reveals the CCP's governance principles, ambitions for national rejuvenation, and approach to both domestic control and international relations.

Xi Jinping's collection of speeches and writings offers direct insight into the ideological and strategic thinking of the PRC's leadership. While On China by Kissinger provides historical depth, The Governance of China is essential for understanding modern policy shifts and long-term ambitions. Pay particular attention to sections on military modernization, the "Chinese Dream," and technological self-reliance.

Discussion Questions:

  • What are Xi's key departures from his predecessors' approaches to governance?

  • How do Xi's writings on military modernization align with observable PRC military development?


Unrestricted Warfare, Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui

Publication Date: 1999

Executive Summary: PLA strategists' blueprint for asymmetric warfare against technologically superior adversaries; outlines a holistic approach combining cyber, economic, legal, and psychological warfare to achieve strategic objectives without conventional military confrontation. 

Written by PLA colonels, this book highlights non-traditional methods of warfare, including cyber, economic, and legal warfare. While LikeWar addresses information operations broadly, Unrestricted Warfare provides a Chinese military perspective on using asymmetric tools to counter a conventionally superior force. The text anticipates many current PRC activities in the gray zone between peace and war.

Discussion Questions:

  • Which concepts from "Unrestricted Warfare" are visible in current PRC operations?

  • How might SOF professionals counter or exploit the asymmetric approaches described?

 

Strategic Competition and Geopolitical Dynamics

 

The Hundred-Year Marathon, Michael Pillsbury


Publication Date: 2015 (updated edition 2016)

Executive Summary: Insider account of PRC's long-term strategy to supplant American global leadership by 2049; details systematic approaches to technology acquisition, influence operations, and strategic deception while maintaining a non-threatening posture.

China's long-term strategy to replace U.S. dominance relies on patient, multi-domain competition. Destined for War introduces the theory of power transitions, but The Hundred-Year Marathon provides a more detailed roadmap of PRC strategy and intent, making it more useful for SOF professionals. Pillsbury's experience as a China specialist in various U.S. government positions offers valuable context on how Beijing pursues its objectives through indirect approaches.

Discussion Questions:

  • What indicators might reveal acceleration or changes in the PRC's "marathon" strategy?

  • How can SOF professionals identify and exploit gaps between PRC rhetoric and action?

 

China's Vision of Victory, Jonathan D.T. Ward

Publication Date: 2019

Executive Summary: Comprehensive analysis of China's global ambitions based on CCP declarations and strategic planning documents; maps PRC's intended path to global primacy while identifying potential friction points and vulnerabilities.

PRC expansionism, including Belt and Road infrastructure projects, creates vulnerabilities that SOF can exploit. While Countering China's Great Game focuses on PRC economic coercion, China's Vision of Victoryprovides a broader geopolitical framework, identifying where China's reach exceeds its grasp. Ward's analysis of primary PRC sources reveals strategic intentions often obscured in diplomatic communications.

Discussion Questions:

  • Where are the most significant gaps between PRC ambitions and capabilities?

  • How might SOF leverage partner nation concerns about PRC influence?

 

Chinese Military Modernization and Force Development, Anthony H. Cordesman

Publication Date: 2014 (with regular updates)

Executive Summary: Detailed technical assessment of PLA capabilities, modernization priorities, and operational weaknesses; provides critical analysis of China's military transformation with particular focus on joint operations deficiencies.

Cordesman's work provides a technical breakdown of PLA force development, modernization, and weaknesses in joint operations. While The Avoidable War provides a diplomatic lens on PRC military ambitions, this book offers a direct analysis of China's warfighting capabilities. Pay particular attention to sections on PLA command and control vulnerabilities, which present potential exploitation opportunities.

Discussion Questions:

  • What are the most significant gaps in PLA joint operations capabilities?

  • How might SOF target key vulnerabilities in PLA command and control structures?

 

The South China Sea: The Struggle for Power in Asia, Bill Hayton

Publication Date: 2014

Executive Summary: Definitive account of territorial disputes and strategic competition in the South China Sea; examines PRC maritime strategy, lawfare tactics, and the intersection of resource competition with military posturing.

A focal point of geopolitical tension, the South China Sea is critical to PRC strategy. While The Digital Silk Road highlights PRC influence through technology, The South China Sea focuses on regional military flashpoints. SOF professionals involved in maritime security can leverage alliances with Quad partners (Japan, India, Australia) to counter PRC assertiveness. Hayton's journalistic approach makes complex territorial disputes accessible while revealing China's incremental strategy for maritime dominance.

Discussion Questions:

  • What role can SOF play in countering PRC gray zone activities in disputed maritime zones?

  • How might SOF leverage partner capabilities to enhance maritime domain awareness?

 

The Digital Silk Road, Jonathan E. Hillman

Publication Date: 2021

Executive Summary: Investigation of China's global digital infrastructure ambitions; reveals how telecommunications networks, surveillance technologies, and data collection support PRC strategic objectives and create security vulnerabilities.

China's digital infrastructure investments serve as a strategic extension of influence. While AI Superpowersfocuses on technological advancements, The Digital Silk Road identifies PRC control over global communications networks, informing countermeasures against surveillance and data theft. Hillman's research identifies specific projects and technologies that create strategic vulnerabilities for partner nations.

Discussion Questions:

  • How can SOF operations counter PRC digital infrastructure dominance?

  • What partnerships can SOF leverage to enhance cybersecurity in vulnerable regions?

 

AI Superpowers, Kai-Fu Lee

Publication Date: 2018

Executive Summary: Insider perspective on China's artificial intelligence ecosystem and strategic advantages; explains how PRC's data abundance, engineering talent, and government support accelerate AI development with military applications.

PRC advancements in AI support military and domestic surveillance capabilities. The Digital Silk Road covers infrastructure, but AI Superpowers directly addresses the AI arms race and its implications for modern warfare. Disrupting AI supply chains, targeting PRC AI research hubs, and countering AI-driven disinformation are emerging priorities for SOF operations. Lee's background as both a Silicon Valley executive and Chinese venture capitalist provides unique cross-cultural insights.

Discussion Questions:

  • How might PRC AI capabilities enhance or change their approach to warfare?

  • What AI applications present the greatest threats to SOF operations?

 

Societal and Economic Pressure Points

The End of the World Is Just the Beginning, Peter Zeihan

Publication Date: 2022

Executive Summary: Geopolitical analysis focusing on demographics, geography, and resource constraints; provides data-driven assessment of China's structural vulnerabilities including aging population, resource dependencies, and fragile supply chains. 

China's demographic collapse, supply chain vulnerabilities, and overreliance on external markets create long-term weaknesses. While The Coming Collapse of China presents a more alarmist economic view, Zeihan provides a data-driven analysis of the structural challenges facing China's economy. SOF can integrate economic pressure campaigns to exacerbate these structural issues. Pay particular attention to sections on energy dependency and maritime chokepoints.

Discussion Questions:

  • How might SOF operations exploit PRC resource dependencies?

  • Which PRC demographic or economic vulnerabilities present the most promising pressure points?

 

Essential Articles

China's Malacca Dilemma and China's Malacca Dilemma Revisited (Storey and Holmes)

Publication Dates: 2006 and 2023

Executive Summary: Analysis of China's critical vulnerability in maritime energy supply chains; examines PRC strategies to mitigate chokepoint vulnerabilities while highlighting persistent strategic weaknesses in energy security.

China's dependence on vulnerable maritime chokepoints like the Malacca Strait remains a significant strategic liability. While Chinese Military Modernization and Force Development covers PRC force structure, these articles offer tactical insights into how disrupting supply chains can constrain PRC force projection. The paired articles show both historical continuity and evolution in PRC strategic thinking on maritime vulnerabilities.

Discussion Questions:

  • How might SOF leverage PRC energy insecurity during crises?

  • What indicators might reveal changes in PRC maritime vulnerability?

 

Conclusion: Knowledge as an Operational Advantage

The US-PRC strategic competition represents the defining geopolitical challenge of the 21st century—one that will unfold across economic, technological, informational, and military domains simultaneously. For SOF professionals, intellectual preparation is as critical as physical and tactical readiness.

This reading list provides more than background knowledge—it offers an operational advantage in understanding how the PRC thinks, what it values, where it's vulnerable, and how it's likely to act. The insights gained from these resources enable SOF professionals to:

  1. Anticipate PRC Actions: Recognize patterns in PRC behavior by understanding strategic culture and historical precedents

  2. Identify Leverage Points: Target specific vulnerabilities in PRC systems, supply chains, and dependencies

  3. Exploit Blind Spots: Operate in areas where PRC awareness or capabilities are limited

  4. Counter Influence Operations: Recognize and neutralize PRC information warfare tactics

5.    Enhance Partner Capacity: Better prepare allies for specific PRC pressure tactics

The intellectual foundation this reading provides turns knowledge into operational capability. In an era of strategic competition, understanding becomes a force multiplier. The most dangerous adversary isn't just the one with superior weapons but the one who thinks differently—and whom you fail to understand.

A broad-spectrum understanding of PRC vulnerabilities, strategic ambitions, and technological advancements strengthens operational effectiveness. Reading alone does not create expertise, but ten books sharpen the mind more than five, and five far more than none. The battlefield is no longer defined by traditional combat alone—economic levers, cyber operations, and AI-driven warfare shape modern conflict. A failure to understand China's strategies and vulnerabilities cedes the initiative.

For SOF professionals operating at the forefront of great power competition, intellectual mastery of your adversary isn't optional—it's mission essential.


Summary of the Readings and General Overview

Strategic Context: PRC Reality vs. Perception

The PRC presents a facade of inevitable ascendancy while concealing critical vulnerabilities. Externally, China projects an image of technological dominance, military modernization, and economic inevitability. Reality reveals a nation facing converging crises: catastrophic demographic collapse (losing 50% of its workforce by 2050), extreme energy insecurity (70% oil import dependence), food shortages (18% of global population with 7% of arable land), unsustainable debt (300%+ debt-to-GDP ratio), and environmental degradation threatening social stability. The CCP's greatest strength—and vulnerability—is maintaining the narrative of inevitable rise while managing these existential challenges.


Implications for SOF Operations

China's approach varies dramatically between competition and conflict scenarios. In competition, the PRC employs patient, indirect methods—economic coercion, technological theft, information manipulation, and lawfare—while avoiding direct military confrontation. In conflict, PRC doctrine emphasizes overwhelming initial strikes, systems disruption, and rapid achievement of political objectives before external intervention can materialize. SOF professionals must operate effectively across both paradigms: during competition, by imposing costs on gray-zone activities and strengthening partner resilience; during conflict, by targeting PLA command networks, disrupting mobilization timelines, and exploiting territorial overextension.


Targeting Strategic Vulnerabilities

The PRC's most exploitable weaknesses stem from geographic constraints and structural imbalances. Maritime chokepoints (Malacca, Sunda, Lombok) control 80% of China's energy imports. Border security spans 14 nations with historical tensions. Internal fissures exist in Xinjiang, Tibet, Inner Mongolia, and Hong Kong. Critical resource dependencies include semiconductor inputs, energy imports, and food security. SOF operations targeting these vulnerabilities—through partner capacity building, unconventional warfare preparation, strategic reconnaissance, and information operations—create asymmetric advantages that offset PLA numerical superiority. By understanding these pressure points, SOF elements can achieve strategic effects disproportionate to their tactical footprint, imposing costs on PRC aggression while remaining below thresholds of armed conflict.


 

US-PRC Strategic Competition Reading List: Quick Reference Guide

 

Key Strategic Concepts & Operational Relevance

 

Category

Key Concept

Primary Source

Operational Relevance

Strategic Intent

"Century of Humiliation" narrative

Xi Jinping, Pillsbury

Motivates aggressive territorial claims and informs negotiation positions

Military Doctrine

"Active Defense" concept

Unrestricted Warfare

Justifies preemptive actions and shapes PRC escalation thresholds

Technological Focus

AI/surveillance dominance

Lee, Hillman

Countering information operations and developing counter-surveillance tactics

Economic Leverage

Debt-trap diplomacy

Ward, Zeihan

Identifies partner nation vulnerabilities and potential resistance points

Critical Vulnerabilities

Energy security

Storey, Holmes

Maritime interdiction opportunities and pressure point exploitation

Gray Zone Operations

Maritime militia

Hayton

Counter-coercion strategies and partner capacity building

Internal Control

Social credit system

Xi Jinping

Understanding population control mechanisms and information environment

Strategic Timeline

2049 power transition

Pillsbury

Decision points, indicators, and warning signs for strategic shifts

Asymmetric Warfare

People's War doctrine

Mao Zedong

Recognition of mobilization patterns and influence operations

Supply Chain

"Dual Circulation" strategy

Zeihan

Targeting dependencies and creating leverageable bottlenecks

 

Critical PRC Vulnerabilities

  • Demographic: Aging population, gender imbalance, declining workforce

  • Energy: 70% oil import dependence, vulnerable maritime supply routes

  • Food Security: Limited arable land, water scarcity, import requirements

  • Economic: Debt-laden real estate, shadow banking, middle-income trap

  • Political: Elite competition, corruption, ethnic tensions in frontier regions

 

Indicators & Warning Signs

 

Domain

Early Indicators

Warning Signs

Crisis Indicators

Military

Exercises near Taiwan

PLAN/PLAAF sustained operations

Military district mobilization

Economic

Technology export controls

Resource stockpiling

Financial system isolation moves

Diplomatic

Consulate closures

Ambassador recalls

Treaty withdrawals

Information

Increased censorship

Nationalist propaganda surge

"Whole of society" mobilization rhetoric

 

About the Author

CW5 Maurice "Duc" DuClos currently serves as a Guest Lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) in Monterey, California. His professional background includes various roles at the United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) Joint Special Operations University (JSOU), the U.S. Army John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School (USAJFKSWCS), the 1st Special Forces Group (Airborne), and the 2/75th Ranger Battalion.

The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the United States Special Operations Command, Joint Special Operations University, or the Naval Postgraduate School.

 

 

 

 

 
 
 

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