Something New Or More Of the Same?
By and For Practitioners
By Monte Erfourth - September 29, 2024
Introduction
As Vice President Kamala Harris looks to ascend to the presidency, her foreign policy will face a world shaped by immense complexities. Global affairs are dominated by climate change, the rise of authoritarianism, and growing geopolitical competition between major powers like the United States, China, and Russia. The article "Foreign Policy for the World as It Is" provides a sobering assessment of the current global order, outlining how U.S. dominance has waned and how the old rules-based system is under strain due to challenges from both allies and adversaries. Harris will inherit this fragmented landscape and must chart a foreign policy that addresses these challenges while distinguishing her leadership from her predecessors.
Navigating a Fragmented World Order
President Joe Biden’s foreign policy was driven by the idea of restoring America’s global leadership, rallying allies to counter Russian aggression in Ukraine and managing competition with China. Yet, as the world grapples with the growing influence of regional powers like India, Brazil, and Turkey, it is clear that U.S. primacy is no longer a given. This reality sets the stage for Harris to craft a foreign policy that accepts a more multipolar world while seeking to maintain U.S. influence. More importantly, three central problems define America’s predicament: the failure to restore a cohesive rules-based order, the contradictions within its foreign policy legacy, and if she wins election, the apparent risks of a pro-Trump majority in either the House or Senate failing to appoint critical appointees and sabotaging foreign policy initiatives. Most notably, failing to pass immigration reform.
President Biden’s pledge that “America is back” was intended to restore the United States as a global leader after the chaotic Trump administration. However, returning America to its formerly respected position as global leader was far more complex than simply announcing it. While Biden sought to reposition the U.S. as a stabilizing force, the old rules-based international order has significantly degenerated. Internal divisions paralyze institutions like the UN Security Council and the World Trade Organization. Furthermore, Russia and China are actively challenging U.S.-led norms, with Russia undermining international agreements and China building alternative global structures. Even traditional allies and previously hopeful partners are now charting independent paths, exemplified by countries like India, Brazil, and Turkey, which balance between U.S. interests and regional partnerships. Multilateral agreements, such as those that once defined global trade or nuclear diplomacy, seem impossible in a world where Washington’s foreign policy has become erratic and inconsistent.
Second, the U.S. has failed to reckon with the missteps of its post-9/11 foreign policy. The "war on terror" not only drained U.S. resources but also emboldened autocratic regimes, contributing to instability across the Middle East and North Africa. Additionally, the global financial crisis of 2008, exacerbated by free-market policies promoted under the Washington Consensus, has fueled populist backlash worldwide. Washington’s over-reliance on sanctions has created workarounds by adversaries, diminishing the leverage once held by the U.S. dollar in international affairs. This legacy has eroded America’s global standing; its lectures on democracy are increasingly ignored given our won democratic struggles, particularly in the Global South. The recent conflict in Gaza is a stark illustration of this predicament. While the U.S. condemns Russian actions in Ukraine, it simultaneously arms Israel in a war criticized for its heavy toll on Palestinian civilians, casting American foreign policy as hypocritical on the global stage. While the two situations are radically different, many in the global south would not see it that way.
Finally, the looming prospect of a second Trump presidency introduces another layer of risk. Trump's populist, nationalist rhetoric resonates deeply with an American public weary of endless wars and disillusioned with traditional elites. Yet, his tenure sowed chaos, undermining U.S. alliances and credibility. Trump’s erratic policies—from his withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal to his embrace of autocratic leaders—created instability in the Middle East, worsened relations with key allies and weakened the U.S. position in global trade. The potential consequences of the Republican party continuing to press for Trump’s policies could further destabilize Europe as Putin attempts to leverage Republican sentiment to press the U.S. to agree to an “end the war” on terms favorable to him. Authoritarians in Europe and especially in China and Iran will be emboldened by a weakened NATO if Congress becomes its chief critic instead of cheerleader. American deterrence, already weakened, could see Congressional support for authoritarians increase the likelihood of conflict in Asia as China will spread if U.S. isolationist-nationalist contraction significantly degrades the U.S. deterrent effect. China will capitalize on American isolationism to assert control over Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific. If Harris wins, she must reconcile the national isolationist mood with the realities of what it will take to remain the leading world power. (See SC article on Deterring China in end notes)
The future of U.S. foreign policy is at a critical juncture. As Harris likely sees it, the challenge is to move away from outdated models of American dominance and adopt a more cooperative approach to address modern global challenges, while simultaneously punishing those who come close to or surpass U.S. redlines. Putting teeth back into deterrence is likely a top priority. Kamala Harris's presidency is likely to emphasize modern global issues such as AI, climate change, and food security, with a focus on the Global South, women’s rights, and human rights.
Building a Foreign Policy Team
Harris’s choice of foreign policy advisors will be instrumental in shaping her approach to international affairs. Philip Gordon, her current National Security Advisor, is expected to remain a central figure in her administration. Gordon brings extensive experience, having served in the Clinton and Obama administrations and played a critical role in U.S. policy toward Europe and the Middle East. He has been a strong advocate for supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression and has emphasized the importance of NATO’s European partners taking greater responsibility for their defense. His views align with a pragmatic foreign policy that emphasizes U.S. engagement but with more shared responsibility from allies.
Another key figure in Harris’s foreign policy team is Rebecca Lissner, her deputy national security advisor. Lissner’s views reflect a desire to move away from U.S. efforts to remake the world in its image and instead maintain an open international system. Her pragmatic liberal internationalism could serve as a moderating force in Harris’s foreign policy, balancing progressive and traditional Democratic currents. Lissner’s work on U.S. grand strategy and her role in shaping Biden’s National Security Strategy provide insights into how she might influence a Harris presidency—focusing on maintaining alliances and protecting U.S. interests without overreach.
Additionally, Harris is expected to face pressure from progressives within the Democratic Party who seek to steer U.S. foreign policy away from militarization and toward greater diplomacy and human rights consistency. While Harris’s foreign policy has largely aligned with Biden’s, her presidency could see a shift, particularly as progressives push for new voices in national security roles.
Harris's Foreign Policy Positions
Harris’s foreign policy positions reflect her support for many of Biden’s initiatives but with subtle distinctions. She has supported continued U.S. assistance to Ukraine and emphasized the importance of NATO. Still, she has also taken a more vocal stance on humanitarian issues in conflicts such as the Israel-Palestine crisis. While Harris has affirmed Israel’s right to defend itself, she has also been one of the administration’s loudest voices in expressing concern for Palestinian suffering. This position highlights her commitment to human rights.
Here is a summary of Kamala Harris's key foreign policy positions based on her track record:
Artificial Intelligence and Technology:
· Harris has been a leader in developing policies for AI governance. She helped formulate an executive order on AI safety, advocated for voluntary commitments from AI firms, and played a key role in the CHIPS and Science Act, which directed $280 billion toward domestic advanced technology production. She emphasized AI's potential for innovation but stressed the importance of protecting against its risks.
China:
· Harris views China as the primary competitor to the U.S. in the 21st century. She has supported stringent export restrictions on critical technologies and advocated for "de-risking" from China instead of full decoupling. Harris also supports continued U.S. engagement in the Indo-Pacific, particularly through alliances with countries like Japan and South Korea, and emphasizes protecting Taiwan under the long-standing U.S. policy of "strategic ambiguity.”
Climate Change:
· Harris sees climate change as an existential threat and was instrumental in the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, which allocated $370 billion toward clean energy investments. She has backed Biden’s return to the Paris Agreement and advocated for international cooperation on climate change, including a $3 billion pledge to the UN Green Climate Fund.
Defense and NATO:
· Harris supports a strong U.S. military presence and reinforces America's commitment to NATO, calling it the greatest military alliance ever. She has backed NATO's expansion with the inclusion of Finland and Sweden and has advocated for greater U.S. involvement in Africa, particularly through military and security assistance.
Israel, Gaza, and the Middle East:
· Harris supports Israel's right to defend itself but has also emphasized the need for a cease-fire and humanitarian assistance in Gaza. She continues to support a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and advocates for holding extremist settlers accountable for violence against Palestinians.
Russia–Ukraine:
· Harris has condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine and advocated for continued U.S. support for Ukraine, including military and financial aid. She argues that failing to counter Russia would embolden other authoritarian nations. Harris has supported sanctions against Russia and has worked closely with allies to isolate the country.
Immigration:
· Harris supports comprehensive immigration reform, including a pathway to citizenship for Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) recipients. She led U.S. diplomatic efforts to address migration from Central America, focusing on economic development and reducing violence in the region. President Biden’s new immigration plan, introduced in June 2024, aims to curb illegal crossings by implementing stricter asylum restrictions at the southern border. A key aspect is the use of a presidential proclamation and an interim final rule, which limit asylum eligibility for those crossing the border irregularly. As a result, illegal crossings have decreased significantly, with a 29% drop in U.S. Border Patrol encounters from May to June 2024. The administration has also increased deportations, returning more than 70,000 individuals to over 170 countries since the plan's implementation. Harris will likely continue these programs and attempt to pass the bipartisan border bill killed in Congress earlier this year.
These positions reflect Harris’s focus on maintaining U.S. global leadership while addressing critical 21st-century challenges, such as technological innovation, climate change, and geopolitical competition with major powers like China and Russia.
What Are The National Security Objectives For This New Foreign Policy?
Kamala Harris’s national security objectives focus on maintaining U.S. military superiority, strengthening global alliances, and addressing emerging threats like cybersecurity and artificial intelligence. She is committed to reinforcing NATO and deepening partnerships in the Indo-Pacific to counter the influence of China and Russia, while providing continued support for Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression. Harris views climate change as a critical national security issue, advocating for U.S. leadership in renewable energy and global emissions reduction. She also prioritizes stabilizing the Middle East by supporting Israel’s security while seeking a two-state solution with the Palestinians and re-engaging diplomatically with Iran to prevent nuclear proliferation. Her broader strategy emphasizes a combination of military strength, multilateral diplomacy, and technological innovation to safeguard U.S. interests in a complex, multipolar world.
Given the policy positions we know Kamala Harris has asserted, we can extrapolate what her national security objectives will likely be:
· Maintaining U.S. Military Strength: Harris advocates for ensuring the United States continues to have the most powerful military in the world, supporting defense modernization and readiness.
· Strengthening NATO and Global Alliances: Maintaining and strengthening NATO and U.S. alliances in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, advocating for deeper cooperation with allies like Japan, South Korea, and Australia to counter threats from Russia and China will be the bedrock approach to national security.
· Immigration. Harris’s policy would seek to bolster border security by increasing funding for agencies like U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). It includes provisions for hiring additional asylum officers and increasing detention capacity by 47%. It also includes asylum criteria with a more stringent threshold for asylum claims and shortening the time migrants have to prepare evidence. Controversially, it will include a mechanism allowing summary deportation during periods when the border is deemed overwhelmed. More border wall enhancements are likely.
· Countering Chinese Influence: Harris supports a strategy of "de-risking" rather than decoupling from China, aiming to reduce reliance on Chinese manufacturing and technology while maintaining strategic economic ties. Additionally, it will continue to contain China within the First Island Chain and lessen Chinese influence by being a more attractive military, diplomatic, and economic partner.
· Supporting Ukraine Against Russian Aggression: A Harris administration will be committed to providing financial, military, and humanitarian aid to Ukraine while imposing sanctions and isolating Russia from the global economy.
· Artificial Intelligence and Cybersecurity: The U.S. government must step up governing AI development and cybersecurity, ensuring that the U.S. maintains technological leadership and is protected against cyberattacks, while establishing global norms for AI safety.
· Climate Change as a National Security Issue: Recognizing climate change as a critical threat, Harris will aim to strengthen U.S. resilience and global leadership in renewable energy and emissions reduction. This must be pursued simultaneously with U.S.-based carbon fuel efficiency technology.
· Middle East Stability: Support Israel’s right to self-defense while advocating for humanitarian protections in Gaza and pursuing a two-state solution or some form of partition. Seek diplomatic re-engagement with Iran to prevent nuclear proliferation while pressing to conclude the Abraham Accords, deny Chinese and Russian regional influence, and maintain stable oil prices. Where possible, degrade Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.
· Combating Terrorism and Extremism: Combat terrorism and extremism globally, particularly through intelligence cooperation and military operations when necessary. Seek a permanent resolution for displaced persons from the war with ISIS and a permanent and well-run prison for ISIS fighters.
· Expanding Diplomatic and Economic Engagement: Expand and improve on U.S. diplomatic capabilities and engagement to resolve conflicts and address global issues. This includes expanding U.S. engagement with African and South American nations (and other developing regions) to counter authoritarian influence.
Diverging from Biden’s Legacy
While Harris’s foreign policy is expected to align with Biden’s in many respects, there will be key differences. Biden’s presidency has been characterized by a return to traditional alliances, particularly in Europe, and a focus on countering Russia and China. Harris will likely continue these policies but with a greater emphasis on diplomatic solutions and reducing military engagements. Her foreign policy could be less hawkish, reflecting her generation’s skepticism toward endless military interventions.
Furthermore, Harris may emphasize global cooperation to address climate change, food security, and technological governance, areas where Biden has made significant strides, but more must be done. Harris’s presidency could see the U.S. play a leading role in shaping international norms around AI and other emerging technologies and pushing for greater global action on climate change.
Conclusion: Meeting Global Challenges
The challenges for the next President are significant and include:
The old rules-based international order has significantly degenerated.
The U.S. failed to address the flaws in its post-9/11 foreign policy. The "war on terror" drained resources and empowered autocratic regimes, leading to instability in the Middle East and North Africa.
The 2008 global financial crisis, worsened by free-market policies, triggered a global populist backlash. Over-reliance on sanctions allowed adversaries to find loopholes, reducing the influence of the U.S. dollar in international affairs.
Many war-wary Americans advocate a nationalist approach. Of those, many don’t agree that Trump’s tenure created chaos, damaged alliances, and weakened the US globally. If Harris wins, she will have to win over Trump acolytes in Congress, who likely push for policies that further destabilize Europe, embolden authoritarians, and increase conflict in Asia as China takes advantage of US isolationism.
The next President needs to address our weakening deterrence and military capabilities. The 2024 Commission on the National Defense Strategy report criticized the slow response of the Pentagon, partisan politics in Congress, and the complacency of multiple administrations towards threats from China, Russia, and the Middle East. The report emphasized the need for a comprehensive approach to national defense involving all elements of national power, including the Department of Defense, the executive branch, the private sector, civil society, and U.S. allies and partners. The report also highlighted the need for fundamental changes in how the Department of Defense functions in response to evolving threats and technology, a new force-sizing construct, increased industrial production, improved readiness of the Joint Force, and better alignment with other parts of the interagency for coordinated military tools and national power.
These challenges will shape Kamala Harris’s foreign policy. Geopolitical competition, economic growth, climate, the declined rules-based system, and the rise of new technologies create conditions that cannot be ignored. Her focus on human rights, the Global South, and modern global challenges marks a shift from previous administrations' Cold War-oriented foreign policy. Still, it is more the “nice things to do” and not the priority.
While her presidency will build on Biden’s achievements, Harris will seek to carve out her legacy, emphasizing diplomacy, multilateralism, and a forward-looking approach to international relations while seeking legitimate solutions to the pressing and longstanding challenges mentioned above. Harris’s foreign policy must be adaptable, pragmatic, and focused on reality in an increasingly fragmented world. If she wins the November election, her success in navigating these challenges will determine whether the U.S.’s role in the world declines or ascends to greater heights.
Endnotes
1. Ben Rhodes, “A Foreign Policy for the World as It Is: Biden and the Search for a New American Strategy,” Foreign Affairs, June 18, 2024.
2. Tracy Wilkinson, “The Next-Generation Foreign Policy of Kamala Harris,” Los Angeles Times, September 10, 2024.
3. Rebecca Lissner and Micah Zenko, An Open World: How America Can Win the Contest for Twenty-First-Century Order, (New York: Yale University Press, 2020).
4. Samuel Dempsey, “Who is Philip Gordon, Harris’s National Security Advisor?” CEPA, August 21, 2024.
5. Nahal Toosi, Phelim Kine, and Joseph Gedeon, “Progressives Scramble for Foreign Policy Jobs Under Kamala Harris,” Politico, August 13, 2024.
6. Asma Khalid, “What is Kamala Harris’ Foreign Policy?” NPR, September 7, 2024.
7. U.S. Customs and Border Protection. "CBP Releases June 2024 Monthly Update." June 2024. https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/national-media-release/cbp-releases-june-2024-monthly-update.
Integrated Deterrence And China's Strategic Insights. https://www.strategycentral.io/post/integrated-deterrence-and-china-s-strategic-insights
Excellent analysis of a Harris administration. I agree.