From Crisis to Comeback: The Army is Turning the Tide on Recruitment

Strategy Central, For and By Practitioners

By Monte Erfourth, September 21, 2024

Introduction

The U.S. military faces a significant recruiting crisis, with enlistment shortages across nearly all branches. Numerous internal and external challenges severely affect the military's ability to attract and retain new recruits. Military families have historically served as a critical pipeline for recruitment, contributing nearly 80% of all new Army enlistees. However, after two decades of war in Iraq and Afghanistan, many veterans—once the strongest advocates for military service—are now discouraging their children and other family members from enlisting. This shift raises concerns as it threatens one of the military's most reliable sources of recruits. Veterans who endured the physical and emotional toll of multiple deployments, including issues like post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), rising suicide rates, and inadequate care, now question whether military service is worth the cost.

The Crisis

Sky Nisperos, a young woman who had long dreamed of becoming an Air Force pilot, exemplifies this growing disillusionment. Raised in a military family and inspired by her father's service, Sky now reconsiders her path due to his advice. Sky's father, an active-duty Air Force officer with two decades of experience, shares the concerns of many other influential figures, including parents, coaches, and pastors, who once encouraged military service but now advise young people to seek other career opportunities. The military has lost its appeal as a desirable career option for many families, especially those familiar with its demands and hardships.

Veteran disillusionment is acute, particularly after the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. For many who spent years fighting in the Middle East, the withdrawal felt like a betrayal of their sacrifices, leading to feelings of futility and frustration. Catalina Gasper, a Navy veteran injured during an attack in Kabul, exemplifies this sentiment. After years of service and multiple injuries, she now questions the purpose of her time in the military and wants to prevent her children from following in her footsteps. This disenchantment, along with rising political polarization surrounding the military, has contributed to declining interest in service among both conservative and liberal Americans. Critics on the right accuse the military of becoming too "woke," while those on the left view it as a bastion of conservative values. These political divisions complicate recruitment efforts and make it harder for the military to appeal to a broad cross-section of the population.

Broader societal issues further exacerbate this decline in enlistment. After years of protracted conflicts in the Middle East without clear victories or objectives, and plenty of evidence of lies about the wars coming from political and military leaders, the military’s image has suffered. Trust in the military has dropped from 70% to 48% in just the last few years. Scandals involving substandard housing, inadequate healthcare, and low pay for lower-ranking troops have worsened public perception. Many young people no longer view the military as a stable career offering benefits and advancement opportunities. Instead, private-sector jobs—offering immediate pay, fewer long-term commitments, and better benefits—have become more attractive. Currently, only 9% of young people between the ages of 16 and 21 are considering military service, down from 13% before the COVID-19 pandemic. This declining interest alarms military planners, who face an ever-shrinking pool of qualified candidates.

The recruiting problem looms large. In 2022, the U.S. Army fell 25% short of its recruiting target, missing approximately 15,000 recruits. The Navy and Air Force face similar challenges, with the Navy expecting a 10,000-recruit shortfall in 2023, and the Air Force projecting a gap of around 3,000. While the Marine Corps has met its recruitment targets, its leaders admit that the process has grown increasingly difficult. These shortfalls are more than a numbers problem; they have broader implications for military readiness, particularly as the U.S. faces renewed global competition from China and Russia. Without improved recruitment numbers, the military may need to reduce its overall force size, a concerning prospect given the current global security environment.

The Army Has A Plan

Pentagon officials recognize the gravity of the situation and have begun addressing it. Army Secretary Christine Wormuth leads efforts to overhaul recruitment strategies, modernize marketing campaigns, improve benefits, and collaborate with veterans' organizations to engage potential recruits more effectively. The military has revamped its marketing, reintroducing slogans like "Be All You Can Be" to emphasize career development and personal growth opportunities within the armed forces. The Army has also launched remedial programs to help underqualified recruits meet military standards. One of the most successful initiatives is the Future Soldier Prep Course, introduced in 2022 at Fort Jackson, South Carolina.

Designed to give lower-performing recruits up to 90 days of academic and physical fitness training, the Future Soldier Prep Course helps them meet the military's rigorous entry requirements. This program has already yielded promising results, closing some gaps left by previous recruitment shortfalls. By the end of the fiscal year, the Army expects this course to bring in nearly 20,000 recruits, providing a critical boost to its numbers. Army leaders remain optimistic that this success marks a turning point and plan to expand such programs further to address recruitment challenges.

Preparing For War: Quality Over Quantity

Even as the military struggles with recruitment, progress is evident. The Army, encouraged by improved numbers from the Future Soldier Prep Course, plans to expand its basic training operations. Starting in October 2024, two new training facilities will open—one at Fort Sill, Oklahoma, and another at Fort Leonard Wood, Missouri. Each facility will train up to 4,000 recruits per year. This expansion is part of a broader effort to ensure the Army can meet the challenges of future conflicts, especially those involving technologically advanced adversaries like Russia and China.

The Army's renewed focus on training reflects its strategic shift from counterinsurgency operations to preparing for large-scale conventional conflicts. After spending much of the past two decades in counterinsurgency wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Army is now emphasizing advanced skills like cyber warfare, artificial intelligence, and emerging technologies. These capabilities are essential as the military prepares for potential conflicts with near-peer adversaries that possess sophisticated military assets.

Expanding training facilities marks a positive step forward for the Army. By increasing training capacity, the Army can better prepare recruits for the challenges of modern warfare. Brig. Gen. Jenn Walkawicz, overseeing operations for the Army's Training and Doctrine Command, highlights the momentum generated by the Future Soldier Prep Course. According to Walkawicz, this program's success has filled the Army's ranks with more qualified recruits, making the force not only larger but more capable.

Although the recruitment crisis is not over, the situation shows signs of improvement. The Army’s efforts to expand training, modernize recruitment, and address misconceptions about military service are producing positive results. However, challenges remain. Only 23% of Americans aged 17 to 24 meet the Army's physical, academic, and moral requirements for enlistment without a waiver. This pool of eligible candidates continues to shrink due to rising rates of obesity, drug use, and other disqualifying factors. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted recruiting efforts by limiting in-person events and access to high schools, making it harder for recruiters to engage with potential enlistees.

Conclusion

Looking ahead, the Army must continue adapting its recruitment strategies to meet the demands of a competitive labor market. Corporate jobs offering competitive pay and benefits attract many of the same young Americans the military seeks to enlist. Additionally, the Army must contend with lingering public concerns about the physical and mental toll of military service, as well as the quality of post-service life, which remain significant barriers for potential recruits and their families.

Despite ongoing challenges, the Army remains determined to rebuild its ranks and prepare for large-scale conflicts with near-peer adversaries. Expanding training programs and raising standards for recruits form part of a broader strategy to ensure the U.S. military remains capable of meeting the complex demands of modern warfare. The next year will be critical for the Army as it builds on recent recruitment gains and prepares soldiers for the future of global conflict. Secretary Warmuth is leading the Army with right approach, ideas, and energy. It is what our nation's Army needs and deserves.

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Endnotes

1. Lolita C. Baldor, "As Recruiting Rebounds, Army to Expand Basic Training, Rebuild for War," Army Times, August 4, 2024.

2. Ben Kesling, "The Military Recruiting Crisis: Even Veterans Don’t Want Their Families to Join," The Wall Street Journal, June 30, 2023.