Diplomatic Dexterity - United States vs. China

A Great Power Competition Report

Strategy Central

By Practitioners, For Practitioners

By Monte Erfourth – September 1, 2024

THE COMPETITION REPORT SERIES

The Strategy Central Great Power Competition report series details the United States and China’s great power competition in the first half 2024. It offers an analysis to help strategists grasp the current rivalry between these two superpowers regarding national power, economics, military power, and diplomacy.  This is the last segment covering great power competition between the U.S. and China and will focus on diplomatic competition.  

This article focuses on the diplomatic dynamics that have shaped U.S.-China relations throughout the first half of 2024. In the evolving landscape of great power competition, diplomacy emerges as a critical tool for both the United States and China, shaping their strategic maneuvers on the global stage. This article delves into the diplomatic efforts of these two superpowers in the first half of 2024, highlighting their contrasting approaches to asserting influence and managing global relations. While China has aggressively expanded its diplomatic footprint through high-profile events and strategic partnerships, the United States has focused on strengthening alliances, promoting democratic values, and addressing global security challenges. The report underscores that the United States holds a strategic advantage through its deep-rooted alliances and partnerships and its commitment to multilateral engagement. It offers a compelling analysis of how diplomacy continues to be a decisive factor in the rivalry between these great powers.

The Situation

Diplomatically, U.S.-China relations have been fraught with tension over issues such as human rights, Taiwan, and strategic alliances. The Biden administration maintained a tough stance on China's human rights record, especially concerning Xinjiang and Hong Kong, leading to diplomatic protests from Beijing. Additionally, U.S. support for Taiwan, including arms sales and political backing, has been a significant point of contention, with China repeatedly warning against any form of Taiwanese independence. Diplomatic engagements have been cautious, aiming primarily at risk management rather than substantive resolution of disputes. This cautious engagement was highlighted during the November 2023 summit in San Francisco, which, while easing immediate tensions, did not address the underlying issues that continue to drive U.S.-China competition.

Major Diplomatic Efforts by China

During the first half of 2024, China engaged in several significant diplomatic initiatives to strengthen its global influence and foster international cooperation. These efforts were diverse, covering various regions and issues and highlighting China's strategic priorities in its foreign policy.

·      High-Level Diplomatic Events

China hosted several key international events to bolster its diplomatic presence and showcase its leadership. These included the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, the Boao Forum for Asia, the China International Import Expo, and the Forum on Global Action for Shared Development. These events focused on themes such as fostering prosperity with developing countries, enhancing regional cooperation, promoting trade and globalization, and implementing the Global Development Initiative.

·      Strengthening Bilateral and Multilateral Relations

China emphasized the importance of high-level exchanges and strategic communication with major powers and regional partners. This included efforts to deepen strategic mutual trust and cooperation with Russia, enhance relations with the European Union, and improve ties with neighboring countries and BRICS nations. These initiatives aimed at building a new type of international relations based on mutual respect and shared interests.

·      Engagement in Conflict Resolution

China actively participated in efforts to resolve global and regional conflicts. It played a constructive role in promoting peace talks and providing public goods conducive to world peace and development. Specific areas of focus included the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the Ukraine crisis. China’s diplomatic activities in these areas were part of its broader Global Security Initiative, which advocates for fairness, justice, and the promotion of peace through dialogue.

·      Strategic Initiatives in Southeast Asia

China's diplomatic activities in Southeast Asia, particularly in Myanmar, were notable. Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang visited Myanmar and engaged with military leader Min Aung Hlaing, signaling China's support for the Myanmar military junta while pushing for the advancement of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. This move highlighted China's strategic interests in the region and its intent to consolidate its influence amidst ongoing conflicts.

·      Enhancing Global Partnerships and Multilateralism

China continued to advocate for a multipolar world and genuine multilateralism. It called for upholding the principles of the United Nations Charter and participating in the reform of the global governance system. China's efforts included promoting the Global Civilization Initiative, which aims to foster exchanges and mutual understanding among different civilizations, and the Global Development Initiative, focusing on inclusive economic globalization and supporting the development capacity of other countries.

·      Diplomatic Engagements with the United States

Following the November 2023 summit between President Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden, China worked to implement the consensus reached during the meeting. This included exploring ways to manage competition and fostering strategic stability. Despite ongoing challenges, this effort marked a significant attempt to stabilize and manage the complex relationship between the two major powers.

·      Diplomatic Engagements with Europe

Chinese diplomatic efforts with Europe have focused on repairing strained relations and expanding economic ties, particularly following controversies such as China’s attempt to dump electric vehicles (EVs) on the European market, which the European Union blocked. China's approach has included high-level diplomatic engagements to ease tensions and promote mutual economic interests. Still, these efforts have been met with growing skepticism from key European nations due to China’s perceived support for Russia amidst the Ukraine conflict. Despite hosting several dialogues emphasizing cooperation and multilateralism, China’s diplomatic overtures have struggled to overcome European concerns about its strategic intentions and alignment with authoritarian regimes, highlighting Beijing's challenges in gaining trust and influence in Europe.

China's diplomatic efforts in the first half of 2024 were characterized by a mix of high-profile events, strategic bilateral engagements, and active participation in global conflict resolution. These initiatives reflect China's broader goals of enhancing its international standing, promoting cooperative development, and shaping a multipolar world order over which it can exert more control.

United States Diplomatic Efforts

The United States led eight separate diplomatic efforts from January to July 2024:

·      U.S.-China Relations

Throughout early 2024, the United States continued its diplomatic efforts to manage tensions with China, focusing on economic cooperation, technology restrictions, and military posturing in the Indo-Pacific region. Notably, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other senior officials engaged in discussions with Chinese counterparts to address issues related to Taiwan, trade disputes, and human rights concerns. This included discussing easing export controls on advanced technologies while balancing national security considerations.

·      Middle East Peace and Security Initiatives

The United States maintained its diplomatic engagement in the Middle East, particularly concerning the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The U.S. worked to broker talks and promote peace initiatives, including supporting normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab nations. Additionally, U.S. diplomatic efforts focused on addressing the ongoing humanitarian crises in Syria and Yemen, promoting ceasefires, and providing humanitarian aid.

·      Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The U.S. played a significant role in supporting Ukraine amidst the ongoing conflict with Russia. Diplomatic efforts included rallying international support for Ukraine, implementing sanctions against Russia, and providing military and economic aid to Ukraine. The U.S. also worked closely with NATO allies to strengthen Eastern European defenses and maintain a unified front against Russian aggression.

·      Reviving the Iran Nuclear Deal

Diplomatic negotiations continued in 2024 to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran. The U.S. engaged in indirect talks with Iran, facilitated by European allies, to explore potential pathways to return to the agreement or establish a new framework that would prevent Iran from advancing its nuclear weapons program.

·      Climate Change Diplomacy

The United States continued to lead global efforts on climate change, engaging in diplomatic initiatives to promote the implementation of the Paris Agreement and encourage countries to commit to more ambitious climate targets. In early 2024, the U.S. hosted a climate summit that focused on international collaboration, financing for green technologies, and addressing the impacts of climate change on vulnerable nations.

·      African Diplomatic Engagement

The U.S. ramped up its diplomatic efforts in Africa, focusing on countering China and Russia's influence on the continent. These efforts included visits by high-ranking officials, increased economic assistance, and initiatives to promote good governance and human rights. The U.S. also prioritized building stronger partnerships with key African nations to address security challenges like terrorism and regional instability.

·      U.S.-European Relations

Diplomatic efforts with European allies remained robust, focusing on strengthening transatlantic ties and addressing common challenges, including cybersecurity, energy security, and economic collaboration. The U.S. also worked closely with the European Union to coordinate responses to Russian aggression in Ukraine, support democratic institutions, and handle emerging threats from non-state actors.

·      Summit for Democracy 2024

In March 2024, the U.S. hosted the second Summit for Democracy in an effort to bolster global democratic norms. The summit brought together leaders from democracies worldwide to discuss strategies for countering authoritarianism, combating corruption, and promoting human rights. It also focused on technological governance and protecting democratic institutions from digital threats.

These diplomatic efforts reflect the United States' focus on addressing global security threats, promoting international cooperation, and maintaining its leadership role on the world stage.

Cooperation

Diplomatic efforts have focused on stabilizing the bilateral relationship and preventing further deterioration. A key outcome was the establishment of a counternarcotics working group aimed at combating the production and trafficking of fentanyl and other narcotics. This initiative highlights a critical area of shared concern with direct implications for public health in both countries. Additionally, discussions were initiated to address the risks associated with artificial intelligence, particularly its military applications, and to explore global AI governance frameworks.

The Head-To-Head Competition

Despite deep-seated strategic and ideological differences, both nations have shown a willingness to engage in constructive dialogue and collaborate on issues of global significance. These efforts, while limited, represent a concerted attempt to manage competition responsibly and seek common ground where possible. Despite responsible moves by both nations, the period from January to July 2024 has seen U.S.-China relations characterized by deepening economic, military, and diplomatic disputes, with both countries taking steps to manage but not resolve their strategic competition.

While China made inroads in the Middle East last year, brokering a truce of sorts between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the effort largely fell apart with the Hamas attack on Israel and subsequent fighting in Gaza since October 2023.  China has been unable to encourage Iran to make safe passage for its ships through the Bab Al Mandeb without Houthi attacks.  China’s leverage has been somewhat diminished in the region.  In Europe, China had to work to repair relationships after attempting to dump EV cars on the Euro market but was blocked by members of the European Union.  Talks with key European nations did not go well, with growing resentment towards China for backing Putin over Ukraine.  China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea have significantly increased economic, security, and diplomatic collaboration over the past year.

The Lowey Comparative Advantage shows that the U.S. is gaining ground over China, except for diplomatic influence and military power. Increases in economic relationships, defense networks, and cultural influence with Iran, Russia, and the global South offset Chinese advantages. China has room to grow, whereas the United States has maximized most of its relationships with the more powerful nations.

In 2024, the U.S. State Department has been actively engaged in significant global diplomatic efforts, reflecting a multifaceted approach to addressing international challenges and strengthening alliances. One key area of focus has been enhancing security partnerships and addressing geopolitical tensions. For instance, the U.S. played a pivotal role in the NATO Summit held in Washington, D.C., which marked 75 years of the alliance. This summit advanced robust deterrence and defense strategies, showcasing NATO's unity and commitment to collective defense in the face of evolving threats. Furthermore, the State Department has been involved in extensive discussions and coordination with international partners to address the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and counter Russian aggression, highlighting a commitment to upholding international norms and supporting allies.

In 2024, the U.S. State Department has significantly engaged in diplomatic efforts across the Middle East, focusing on strengthening alliances, addressing regional conflicts, and promoting stability. Secretary of State Antony Blinken embarked on a comprehensive tour of the region in January, visiting key nations, including Turkey, Greece, Jordan, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Israel, the West Bank, Bahrain, and Egypt. This tour addressed various issues, such as regional security, economic cooperation, and ongoing conflicts. In Saudi Arabia, discussions centered on regional security and the Yemen conflict, while in Israel, talks focused on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and steps toward a two-state solution. The visit to Iran explored possibilities for diplomatic normalization and cooperation on regional stability and the nuclear deal.

Furthermore, the State Department facilitated a historic agreement between Israel and Lebanon to end their maritime boundary dispute formally. This agreement, achieved after months of U.S.-mediated negotiations, is expected to enhance regional stability and cooperation, particularly in energy resource development. The U.S. also emphasized the importance of diplomatic solutions and economic collaboration during Blinken's visits to UAE, Qatar, and Egypt, addressing issues from counterterrorism to economic partnerships. These efforts reflect a broader U.S. strategy to foster peace, stability, and prosperity in the Middle East through robust diplomatic engagement.

Additionally, the State Department has strongly emphasized public diplomacy and strategic communication. This includes countering misinformation and enhancing the U.S.'s global image through public diplomacy initiatives. The Global Engagement Center has been at the forefront of these efforts, working to expose and counter foreign propaganda and disinformation. The department has also focused on promoting global health security, as demonstrated by the 2024 U.S. Global Health Security Strategy release, which aims to strengthen international health systems and improve preparedness for future pandemics. These initiatives reflect a comprehensive approach to diplomacy, integrating security, public diplomacy, and international development to address complex global issues and foster international cooperation.

Conclusion

In the first half of 2024, the United States and China have intensified their diplomatic efforts, each pursuing distinct strategies to bolster their global influence. The United States has focused on reinforcing alliances, addressing global security concerns, and promoting democratic values. At the same time, China's approach has been characterized by fostering economic partnerships, advocating for multipolarity, and deepening ties with authoritarian regimes. Despite China's extensive diplomatic engagements, including numerous high-profile international events and initiatives to enhance bilateral relations, the United States appears to hold a diplomatic edge. This advantage stems from its ability to forge and maintain robust alliances, its leadership in addressing global challenges such as climate change and health security, and its commitment to upholding international norms.

While China boasts more embassies worldwide, suggesting a broader diplomatic presence, the effectiveness of its diplomacy is often hindered by its alignment with contentious regimes and its aggressive stance on territorial disputes. In contrast, the United States' diplomatic efforts are bolstered by its longstanding partnerships, particularly within NATO and with key allies in Asia and Europe, which provide a more cohesive and strategic approach to global challenges. The primary lesson of this report is that while numerical superiority in diplomatic outposts may enhance visibility, the depth and quality of diplomatic relationships and the ability to leverage international alliances are more critical to achieving sustained global influence. As the great power competition unfolds, the United States' diplomatic strategy, grounded in coalition-building and multilateral engagement, positions it more favorably than China's more insular and contentious approach.

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