Studies Reveal Certain U.S. Groups More Susceptible To Conspiracies
Strategy Central
By and For Practitioners
By Monte Erfourth, October 19, 2024
Introduction
Conspiracy theories have become a significant challenge for American society, shaping political discourse and health decisions and even threatening the fabric of democratic institutions. While belief in conspiracies is not exclusive to the U.S., certain demographic factors and political leanings have amplified this phenomenon. The widespread belief in conspiracies presents a unique threat to the military, potentially undermining national security and operational integrity. Understanding why individuals are drawn to conspiracy theories and how the military can address this issue is crucial for safeguarding the future of American defense.
The Psychological Appeal of Conspiracy Theories
Conspiracy theories are often rooted in emotional, psychological, and social factors, appealing to those who feel alienated, distrustful, or marginalized. According to research, conspiracy theories offer simplified explanations for complex events and fulfill psychological needs like the desire for control, certainty, and security.¹ They often frame events in a "good versus evil" narrative, attributing malevolent intent to unseen forces.²
One primary reason people fall for conspiracy theories is motivated reasoning, which tends to favor information that supports pre-existing beliefs while rejecting evidence that contradicts them.³ This cognitive bias allows individuals to maintain their worldview even when faced with disconfirming evidence.⁴
While conspiracy theories may seem like the delusions of a few fringe individuals, research shows that they can affect people from all walks of life. Over 50 percent of Americans believe in at least one conspiracy theory.⁵ However, specific demographics, such as younger individuals and those with lower education levels, tend to be more susceptible.⁶
Who Is Most Prone to Conspiracy Theories?
Demographic data show that certain groups are more likely to embrace conspiracy theories. Studies consistently find that Millennials rank highly among those most susceptible, the extreme left and right of the political spectrum.⁷ This is particularly concerning, given millennials and more right-wing demographic groups overlap significantly with those who enlist in the military. Millennials currently make up a significant portion of the U.S. armed forces.
Political polarization plays a crucial role in shaping conspiracy beliefs. Supporters of former President Donald Trump, for example, are more likely to endorse theories questioning the legitimacy of elections, that the 9/11 Twin Towers bombing was a U.S. government false flag operation, and that the government controls the weather. Left-leaning Americans are more apt to believe that the world can quickly stop using fossil fuels and easily convert all energy sources to electric power, the October 7 attack by Hamas was actual a false flag operation conducted by the Israeli government, or that the rich do not pay taxes. Even more concerning is that polling shows younger individuals, particularly Millennials, are more prone to believe in conspiracies related to scientific matters. Shockingly, as much as one-third of millennials believe the earth is flat, misunderstand the causes of climate change, and that vaccinations contain microchips to track them.⁸ The prevalence of conspiratorial thinking among these groups raises concerns about the military's susceptibility to misinformation.
Research also shows that those who align themselves with extreme ideologies—both left and right—are more likely to believe in and spread conspiracy theories.⁹ This dynamic creates an environment in which individuals are not only exposed to misinformation but are also inclined to believe it. In the age of social media, this phenomenon is exacerbated by platforms that allow misinformation to spread rapidly and unchallenged.¹⁰
How Misinformation Affects the Military
The military relies heavily on accurate, timely information to conduct operations and make strategic decisions. When service members are susceptible to misinformation, it creates vulnerabilities that foreign adversaries can exploit. Psychological operations (psyops), disinformation campaigns, and influence operations are time-tested tools state and non-state actors use. These operations aim to sow confusion, create divisions, and manipulate decision-making within targeted groups.
Misinformation creates confusion and can lead to unforced errors in military operations. For instance, spreading false or misleading information during high-stakes missions could result in strategic miscalculations or misinterpretations of the enemy’s intent. In the broader scope of military readiness, a workforce swayed by conspiracy theories is less likely to make decisions based on objective, evidence-based analysis.¹¹ Furthermore, disinformation campaigns targeting military personnel could undermine the chain of command, weaken cohesion, and erode trust in leadership.
In today's geopolitical landscape, where information warfare plays a central role, America’s military must remain vigilant against these emerging threats. Foreign powers like Russia and China have long recognized the potential of exploiting divisions within U.S. society, and conspiracy theories are a potent tool in their arsenal.¹²
Addressing the Problem: The Role of Military Leadership
In theory, the military’s hierarchical structure and commitment to discipline should create a buffer against conspiracy theories. However, the rise of social media has made it more challenging to contain the influence of misinformation. Platforms like Facebook and Twitter have become breeding grounds for conspiracy theories, and younger generations are particularly vulnerable.¹³ With nearly three-quarters of Americans using social media daily, the military must recognize that its personnel are not immune to these influences.¹⁴
One way to mitigate this risk is to implement educational programs to enhance critical thinking and media literacy among service members. Research shows that people often share misinformation because they aren’t paying attention to accuracy.¹⁵ By fostering a culture that values evidence-based analysis and critical thinking, the military can help reduce the spread of false information within its ranks.
Moreover, identifying individuals more susceptible to conspiracy theories should become part of the military’s broader strategy for safeguarding operational integrity. This may include monitoring social media activity and providing training that teaches personnel to recognize disinformation and think critically about the sources of their information.¹⁶
Another key recommendation is for military leadership to create clear lines of communication regarding disseminating official information. When official communication channels are transparent, timely, and authoritative, they help drown out the noise of misinformation. The military must also emphasize the importance of trust within the chain of command, ensuring that soldiers have faith in their leadership rather than relying on dubious online sources for information.¹⁷
The Role of the Secretary of Defense
The next Secretary of Defense must prioritize addressing the threat of misinformation and conspiracy theories within the ranks. This problem is not just about curbing the spread of false information but safeguarding national security. A military workforce that conspiracy theories can easily sway is a vulnerable workforce that foreign adversaries will undoubtedly target.¹⁸
The Department of Defense (DoD) should invest in comprehensive studies to understand the full extent of conspiracy theory penetration among military personnel. Additionally, military leadership must work closely with cybersecurity and information warfare experts to develop robust countermeasures against disinformation campaigns aimed at service members. As the U.S. prepares for future conflicts in an increasingly digital and information-centric age, the military must be equipped to combat physical threats and the cognitive ones that misinformation presents.¹⁹
The next administration must recognize that conspiracy theories significantly threaten military readiness and national security. By understanding the factors that make certain individuals more susceptible to these ideas, the military can develop strategies to counter them. A proactive approach to media literacy, critical thinking, and information security will be essential to protecting the U.S. military from the dangers of misinformation. It is a problem that the next Secretary of Defense cannot afford to ignore.
Notes:
1. Lawrence Hamilton, Conspiracy vs. Science: A Survey of U.S. Public Beliefs (Durham, NH: Carsey School of Public Policy, 2022).
2. Christina Georgacopoulos, Why We Fall for Conspiracy Theories (2020).
3. Ibid.
4. Shauna Bowes, “Why Some People Are Willing to Believe Conspiracy Theories,” Psychological Bulletin, June 26, 2023.
5. Ibid.
6. Adam Enders et al., "The Sociodemographic Correlates of Conspiracism," Scientific Reports, 2024.
7. Lawrence Hamilton, Conspiracy vs. Science.
8. Ibid.
9. James Devitt, “Online Misinformation Most Likely to be Believed by Ideological Extremists,” NYU Center for Social Media and Politics, 2024.
10. Denise-Marie Ordway, "Why Do Americans Share So Much Fake News? One Big Reason is They Aren’t Paying Attention," Nieman Foundation, 2021.
11. Aliza Vigderman, 2022 Misinformation and Disinformation Study, Security.org, 2024.
12. Ibid.
13. Ibid.
14. Ibid.
15. Denise-Marie Ordway, "Why Do Americans Share So Much Fake News?"
16. Adam Enders et al., "The Sociodemographic Correlates of Conspiracism."
17. Ibid.
18. James Devitt, “Online Misinformation Most Likely to be Believed by Ideological Extremists.”
19. Aliza Vigderman, 2022 Misinformation and Disinformation Study.
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