How Did Secretary Blinken Do?
Strategy Central
For And By Practitioners
By Monte Erfourth, November 2, 2024
Introduction
Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent article, “America’s Strategy of Renewal,” serves as both a retrospective and a strategic overview of the diplomatic actions taken by the Biden administration during its tenure. This strategy is defined by two core pillars: strengthening economic competitiveness at home and revitalizing international partnerships. Blinken presents the overarching strategy as a comprehensive effort to restore American leadership and credibility in a rapidly changing global landscape, especially in response to challenges posed by major powers such as China and Russia. Below, we explore the administration’s achievements, analyze their merits, and offer an overall assessment of the effectiveness of this strategy.
Key Achievements Under America’s Strategy of Renewal
Secretary Blinken lays out four years of achievement:
NATO Expansion and Reinforcement: The Biden administration supported NATO's expansion by welcoming Finland and Sweden into the alliance, thereby enhancing its strength and cohesion. NATO also increased defense spending commitments, with 23 of 32 allies meeting their 2% GDP target.
Domestic Economic Revitalization: Historic investments were made through the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, focusing on revitalizing U.S. manufacturing, bolstering technology sectors, and fostering clean energy initiatives. These measures helped the United States become the world’s largest recipient of foreign direct investment.
Reinforcing Alliances in Asia: The administration strengthened alliances in Asia, such as the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-South Korea relationships, while reinvigorating partnerships like the Quad (Australia, India, Japan, and the United States) to advance a free Indo-Pacific.
AUKUS Partnership: A trilateral defense partnership was formed between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States (AUKUS), emphasizing cooperation in nuclear-powered submarine technology and broader scientific and industrial endeavors.
Support for Ukraine: In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the United States coordinated military support and humanitarian aid, while imposing sanctions on Russia with a coalition of over 50 countries. This included the establishment of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group to support Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
Global Infrastructure Investments: Through the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, the U.S. committed to facilitating $600 billion in infrastructure development across developing nations, providing alternatives to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
COVID-19 Vaccine Diplomacy: The U.S. led international efforts to distribute COVID-19 vaccines, supporting global health initiatives and strengthening international partnerships.
Engagement with China: While reinforcing a competitive stance towards China, the Biden administration resumed military-to-military communication and sought cooperation in areas like climate change and nuclear nonproliferation.
Expansion of International Organizations: The administration backed reforms of international institutions like the UN and the IMF, and pushed for the expansion of the UN Security Council to better represent current global dynamics.
Analyzing the Achievements: Merits and Potential Faults
The Biden administration’s focus on domestic economic renewal and alliance revitalization can be viewed as a direct response to the perception of American decline. By investing heavily in technology and infrastructure, the administration has attempted to counter the narrative of U.S. irrelevance and to dissuade adversaries from testing American resolve. These domestic investments have attracted significant foreign investment and created new job opportunities, fostering a stronger foundation for international engagement.
The success of the CHIPS and Science Act and other similar initiatives demonstrates the administration’s recognition that economic strength is fundamental to geopolitical influence. This renewed focus on economic competitiveness has not only helped strengthen U.S. industrial capacity but also reduced dependence on China for critical technologies.
In the realm of alliances, the administration's success in expanding NATO and reinforcing alliances in the Indo-Pacific shows a significant effort to counter the growing influence of China and Russia. The swift and coordinated international response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—from military support to economic sanctions—highlighted the effectiveness of these renewed partnerships.
However, there are also potential weaknesses in the strategy. The emphasis on building stronger defense alliances and enhancing military postures, while necessary, risks escalating tensions with rival powers such as China and Russia. The administration's approach to balancing competition with cooperation in its China policy has also proven challenging, as maintaining constructive dialogue while pushing back against Chinese influence has yielded mixed results. While economic investments at home have boosted U.S. growth, there remains criticism from some allies over the perception that American protectionism could undermine global trade relationships.
Furthermore, the success of the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, which aims to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative, remains uncertain. The ability of the U.S. and its allies to deliver impactful infrastructure projects will ultimately determine whether this initiative can truly provide a viable alternative to China’s expansive influence in developing regions.
Evaluating the Overall Effectiveness of the Strategy
The overarching goal of the Biden administration’s strategy was to restore American leadership in an increasingly competitive international environment. The results of this strategy have been mixed but largely positive. The administration has undoubtedly succeeded in demonstrating that the United States is not in decline, as evidenced by its economic resurgence and the strengthening of alliances worldwide. The NATO expansion and increased cohesion within the alliance are particularly noteworthy achievements that enhance the collective security framework against authoritarian threats.
The Biden administration’s emphasis on competitive coexistence with China—recognizing it as a “pacing challenge” while keeping channels for cooperation open—is a nuanced approach that reflects the complexities of the relationship. However, the effectiveness of this balanced approach remains to be seen, especially as tensions over Taiwan and other regional flashpoints continue to escalate.
The administration's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine also underscores a renewed American commitment to global stability and a rules-based international order. By rallying European and Asian allies to impose unprecedented sanctions and provide military support, the U.S. demonstrated its ability to lead a unified response to aggression. Nevertheless, sustaining this level of support in the face of prolonged conflict will be a key challenge moving forward. The Middle East is another area of major diplomatic and military investment since the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Hamas. The Secretary’s almost two dozen trips to seek a peaceful resolution to the spread of fighting since that event has not yielded significant public results. But the issue has time to develop and may yet break in favor of the administration’s policy goals.
Overall, the Biden administration’s strategy of renewal has placed the United States in a stronger geopolitical position than it was four years ago. The emphasis on rebuilding alliances and investing in economic competitiveness has yielded tangible results. However, the long-term success of these initiatives depends on the continued commitment of allies and the ability of the United States to avoid overextending itself militarily and economically. Additionally, alliances and patterners are not an end state. The ability to sustain and use the allies and partners to good effect is the promise, but not always the reality.
Final Grade: B+
The Biden administration’s strategy of renewal, and Secretary Blinken’s commitment to it, deserves a grade of B+. The administration has made considerable progress in rebuilding American credibility and leadership, particularly in revitalizing alliances and partnerships while investing in domestic competitiveness. However, challenges remain in maintaining a delicate balance in relations with China, ensuring the effectiveness of infrastructure investments abroad, and sustaining allied support in ongoing conflicts like Ukraine and the Middle East. The strategy has laid a solid foundation for American leadership, but its ultimate success will depend on consistent and disciplined follow-through.
Bibliography
1. Blinken, Antony J. "America's Strategy of Renewal." Foreign Affairs, November/December 2024. [Link](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/antony-blinken-americas-strategy-renewal-leadership-new-world)
2. "CHIPS and Science Act Summary." U.S. Congress, 2022. [Link](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/4346)
3. Sanger, David E. "Biden’s Strategy on China Balances Competition and Cooperation." The New York Times, March 2023. [Link](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/15/us/politics/biden-china-strategy.html)
4. Smith, Karen. "NATO Expansion and the New Security Architecture." Atlantic Council, May 2024. [Link](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/nato-expansion-security/)
5. Miller, James. "Evaluating the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment." Brookings Institution, June 2024. [Link](https://www.brookings.edu/global-infrastructure-investment)
6. Gordon, Michael R. "AUKUS and the Future of Indo-Pacific Security." Wall Street Journal, September 2024. [Link](https://www.wsj.com/articles/aukus-indo-pacific-security)
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