President Biden Failed, Succeeded, And Left Unfinished Business
By Practitioners, For Practitioners
By Monte Erfourth - September 15, 2024
Introduction
President Joe Biden assumed office in 2021, facing a turbulent international landscape characterized by rising great power competition, a global pandemic, and a fractured U.S. role on the world stage, particularly in the wake of the previous administration's more unilateral approach. His foreign policy, built on a promise to restore U.S. leadership and rebuild alliances, was shaped by notable successes and significant missteps.
Biden's foreign policy legacy will likely emphasize multilateralism and the rebuilding of alliances, particularly in response to the previous administration's unilateral approach. His foreign policy has focused on countering China's influence and strengthening partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region. In Europe, he has worked to solidify NATO alliances and support Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. This includes providing military and economic aid to Ukraine and imposing sanctions against Russia.
Domestically, Biden's foreign policy has faced challenges due to political divisions, which could impact the sustainability of his initiatives. However, his administration's efforts to engage in diplomacy and foster international cooperation may leave a legacy of renewed global partnerships and a strategic focus on addressing transnational issues collaboratively.
As Biden’s Presidency winds down, it is an opportune time to analyze his foreign policy legacy, critical national security appointments, significant diplomatic efforts, and his administration's enduring challenges. Of course, his blunder in Afghanistan must be discussed in light of success and failure in deterrence.
The Foreign Policy Team: Seasoned Experts and Strategic Choices
Biden’s foreign policy team, often called the “A-team” inside the White House staff, was composed of highly experienced professionals. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, who had previously worked with Biden during the Obama administration, brought a more progressive approach to foreign policy, emphasizing diplomacy over military intervention. CIA Director William Burns, a veteran diplomat with extensive experience in Russia, was a trusted figure in Biden’s foreign policy establishment. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Biden's longtime advisor and confidant, was instrumental in repairing alliances after the tumultuous Trump years.
Biden served on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and, as Vice President, was deeply involved in shaping foreign policy. He is often thought of as a foreign policy expert inside the Beltway. The Biden team’s early strength lay in their deep understanding of global politics and shared commitment to restoring U.S. leadership in multilateral institutions. However, it did not take long for internal tensions and external challenges to undermine their ability to capitalize fully on the opportunities presented.
Afghanistan Withdrawal: A Major Foreign Policy Blunder
Biden’s decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan marked the end of America’s longest war but left behind chaos and widespread criticism. While Biden inherited a withdrawal agreement from the Trump administration, his administration’s execution of the pullout was widely condemned. The rapid collapse of the Afghan government, the takeover by the Taliban, and the chaotic evacuation from Kabul, which resulted in the deaths of 13 U.S. service members and over 160 Afghan civilians, severely damaged Biden’s reputation.
Biden defended the decision by arguing that continuing the war would have served no strategic purpose, but the withdrawal had far-reaching repercussions. It damaged U.S. credibility, strained alliances, and emboldened adversaries. Critics argued that the U.S. could have maintained a small, sustainable presence that would have prevented the Taliban’s resurgence without significant additional costs. This is debatable, given the rapid dissolution of the Afghan National Army in the face of Taliban pressure. Nonetheless, the disorderly withdrawal likely signaled weakness to Putin, who was considering an invasion of Ukraine. Decades of U.S. risk aversion and inaction with the Russian invasion of Georgia and Crimea made it easy to assume the U.S. would do nothing to Russia if it invaded Ukraine.
Countering Russian Aggression: A Resilient Response to Ukraine
Biden’s most significant foreign policy success came in his handling of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. From the outset, Biden adopted a firm stance against Russian aggression, providing Ukraine with military aid and rallying NATO allies to impose crippling sanctions on Moscow. His administration’s decision to release intelligence about Russia’s military buildup before the invasion helped preempt Moscow’s disinformation campaigns and mobilize international support.
However, as the war dragged on, the conflict settled into a bloody stalemate, raising questions about Biden’s strategy. Critics argued that Biden’s framing of the war as a battle between democracy and autocracy limited diplomatic options. The “drip” of aid never gave Ukraine’s forces a decisive edge in combat, contributing to the stalemate and failure to secure a negotiated settlement. Increasing tolerance in the use of American-supplied weapons and deft strategic maneuvering by the Ukrainians may still produce an acceptable termination of hostilities. Despite these challenges, Biden’s leadership strengthened NATO, leading to the admission of Finland and Sweden and increasing defense spending among alliance members.
Rebuilding Trust with NATO and European Allies
Biden’s key foreign policy achievement was rebuilding trust with NATO and European allies. After four years of strained relations under Donald Trump, Biden reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to the alliance and worked to repair transatlantic ties. His leadership in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine solidified NATO’s unity, and his administration played a pivotal role in coordinating military and economic aid to Kyiv.
Biden also increased defense spending among NATO members, with two-thirds of the alliance now meeting the 2 percent of GDP defense spending target. His administration’s efforts were instrumental in expanding the alliance with the inclusion of Finland and Sweden, strengthening NATO’s position in the face of Russian aggression.
Managing the China Challenge: Containment and Competition
One of the defining aspects of Biden’s foreign policy was his approach to China. The Biden administration viewed China as the primary long-term strategic challenge, and its efforts to contain and deter Beijing’s influence were central to its diplomatic efforts. Biden pursued a policy of strategic competition, working to build a coalition of allies in the Indo-Pacific to counter China’s growing military and economic power.
President Biden has made significant diplomatic moves in the Pacific region, such as elevating the Quad alliance and forming the AUKUS security pact with Australia. However, some missteps have occurred, including ambiguity regarding the United States' stance on Taiwan and a controversial visit by Nancy Pelosi that escalated tensions with China. President Biden's administration has also restricted Chinese access to technology and encouraged domestic chip manufacturing. While progress has been made in advancing and protecting U.S. national security interests, there has been criticism of the administration's lack of a comprehensive economic strategy for the region.
Middle East Policy: Balancing Israel, Iran, and Terrorism
Biden’s foreign policy in the Middle East was marked by continuity and caution. His administration supports Israel in its military campaigns against Hamas but has faced criticism for failing to push Israel to adopt a more restrained approach in Gaza. The October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas further complicated U.S. policy as Biden sought to balance his longstanding support for Israel with growing concerns about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and restrain the wily and self-serving Bibi Netanyahu.
Biden’s efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal were largely unsuccessful in Iran. Despite early hopes of restoring the agreement, internal divisions within the administration and escalating tensions with Tehran led to a stalemate. The failure to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its proxy activities across the region remains a significant challenge for Biden’s foreign policy legacy. The eroding relationships with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Iraq will be difficult to reverse. The Middle East, as it has always been, remains a constant source of endless but unproductive effort.
Southern Border and Immigration: A Domestic Failure with Foreign Policy Implications
One of Biden’s most glaring failures was his inability to address the ongoing crisis at the southern U.S. border. Despite early promises to adopt a more humane immigration policy, the administration struggled to manage the influx of migrants from Central and South America. The record-high numbers of illegal border crossings overwhelmed U.S. immigration authorities. They created political tensions within the Democratic Party, with major cities like New York and Chicago struggling to cope with the arrival of thousands of migrants.
This failure had broader foreign policy implications, undermining Biden’s efforts to strengthen ties with Latin American countries and address the root causes of migration. The effects of COVID, war, crime, cruel regimes, and the loss of COVID restrictions for entry made for a perfect storm along the Southern border. The administration’s attempts to balance humanitarian concerns with political pragmatism left Biden vulnerable to criticism from both the left and right. Too many people entered illegally or used asylum without a legal basis for our system to handle. Despite a failed Congressional border reform bill, it was Biden’s responsibility to stem the tide, shift resources, and create a legal basis for more aggressive Homeland Security action.
Conclusion: A Legacy of Strengths and Unfinished Business
President Biden’s foreign policy legacy is a mixture of notable successes, enduring challenges, and a failure at the border. His efforts to restore U.S. leadership, strengthen alliances, and counter significant adversaries like China and Russia have reshaped the global landscape. However, his failures—particularly the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, the difficulty using U.S. leverage on Middle East leaders, and immigration—highlight the limits of his administration’s ability to manage complex global challenges.
President Joe Biden's foreign policy legacy will likely be defined by his efforts to restore U.S. alliances, confront rising global threats, and navigate the challenges of great power competition. His administration sought to strengthen NATO in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, reaffirmed commitments to Indo-Pacific allies amid China's growing influence, and reentered key multilateral agreements like the Paris Climate Accord. However, his failures have left mixed impressions of his leadership on the global stage. Biden's emphasis on diplomacy and coalition-building will likely endure as central to his foreign policy legacy.
A Warning to our next President: For the past twenty-five years, the U.S. has had weak deterrence against Russia and China. The next President needs to acknowledge that the U.S. military has not yet figured out how to compete below the level of armed conflict. This needs to be addressed to maintain U.S. hegemony in the Pacific. Deterrence is still a valid strategy. The U.S. must not abandon Ukraine as it could signal permission for China's expansionist agenda. The U.S./NATO must succeed in Ukraine to check China and Russia.
Additionally, the U.S. needs to address the Chinese fishing boat militia, halt artificial island expansion, and establish a strong deterrent for Taiwan. Ukraine remains essential in the U.S. deterrent strategy. If Putin succeeds in Ukraine, it could embolden China. This could lead to war, which is the worst possible outcome.
Endnotes:
1. Blaise Malley, “How Biden's 'A-Team' Squandered Its Foreign Policy Opportunity,” Responsible Statecraft, March 14, 2024.
2. Charles A. Kupchan, “Biden’s Legacy: Major Accomplishments but Unfinished Business,” Council on Foreign Relations, July 25, 2024.
3. Jessica T. Mathews, “What Was the Biden Doctrine?” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2024.
